Quad cannot prevent China’s rise
US must match Biden’s statements that it desires to cooperate with Beijing for global good
At their third in-person Quadrilateral Security Dialogue on the sidelines of the G7 Summit in Hiroshima, Japan, on May 20, the United States, Japan, India and Australia reaffirmed their commitment to a “free, open, inclusive, and resilient Indo-Pacific” region.
But no matter how they package it, the “Quad” is nothing more than a typical example of Washington’s “clique diplomacy” to contain China and maintain its global hegemony.
The US revived the Quad in 2017 to serve its global strategy, especially its “Indo-Pacific” strategy.
In fact, the US launched the “IndoPacific” strategy in 2017 with the core objective of containing China by strengthening cooperation with partner countries, shaping a favorable “Indo-Pacific” order, and maintaining its hegemony.
In recent years, the Quad’s efforts to contain China have become increasingly pronounced.
The scope of cooperation within the Quad has expanded from military security to include fields such as the economy, science and technology, and biosecurity.
While its joint statement this year did not directly mention China by name, it was subtly targeted at China. It opposed any attempts to change the region’s status quo by force, undermine its stability, or engage in unilateral actions in the Asia-Pacific region.
Expressing “serious concern” over the militarization of disputed islets, the dangerous use of coast guard vessels, and actions that could disrupt other countries’ maritime resource development activities, the Quad vowed to intensify its countermeasures against
China’s infrastructure development in the region.
Since the revival of the Quad, military and security cooperation among the four countries has been steadily strengthening.
For instance, the Malabar naval exercise has evolved from a bilateral military drill between the US and India to a trilateral exercise among the US, India and Japan and a quadrilateral naval exercise with the inclusion of Australia in 2020.
And in 2022, the Quad launched a new maritime security initiative called the “Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness”, which currently is in pilot phase.
In the field of technology, the Quad has intensified its efforts to check China’s technological advancement, by establishing a “Critical and Emerging Technology Working Group” and launching the “Semiconductor Supply Chain Initiative”.
Apart from causing disruptions in the “Indo-Pacific” region, the Quad engages with countries outside the grouping in an attempt to lure them into its fold to contain China, thereby creating divisions in the region.
The joint statement specifically mentions ASEAN, the South Pacific and the countries around the Indian Ocean, emphasizing the importance of the regional leadership of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and pledging to further consolidate the Quad’s relationship with ASEAN and expand cooperation.
The statement also promises to expand cooperation with Pacific island countries and the Indian Ocean Rim Association, as well as to increase investment and infrastructure construction, particularly laying submarine cables, in the Asia-Pacific region.
The Quad has said it will take measures to counter the China-proposed Belt and Road Initiative and pressure regional countries into making a “binary choice”.
The Quad has been trying to create divisions and raise tensions in the region, posing a serious challenge to the regional order and security. Particularly concerning is the potential escalation of maritime tensions and increased risks of naval clashes due to the US’ aggressive military activities in the region.
The Quad has also conducted military activities with some ASEAN members and non-regional countries such as the United Kingdom and France in the South China Sea.
These activities are likely to boost the military confidence of the countries that have disputes with China in the South China Sea, increasing the risk of maritime confrontations.
The establishment of the Quad Infrastructure Fellowships Program and the Quad’s intensified efforts to disrupt supply chains and infrastructure projects targeting China make it even more difficult to develop a free, open and prosperous Asia-Pacific region.
Yet the US says it wants to improve relations with China and has no intention of challenging China. This is nothing but an effort to create a smokescreen which it believes will allow it to continue its anti-China activities.
It is not possible for the US to improve its relations with China while it strengthens its military presence in the region to counter China.
The Quad cannot prevent China’s rise. While the four countries share the common goal of containing China, their specific interests and preferences vary greatly.
In particular, India lacks the strong motivation needed to contain China and its position is different from the other three countries’ on issues such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict. So it is unlikely that the Quad will turn into a solid US-led alliance.
Moreover, the majority of countries in the region are unwilling to take sides between China and the US. The Quad is likely to fall short of its objectives.
Therefore, the Joe Biden administration should seize the opportunity of Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to China on June 18-19 to change its short-sighted China policy, and commit to concrete actions that match the US president’s statements that the US desires to cooperate with China for global good.