Time is right to bolster ties
China, Australia must work together on healthy, stable development of their warming relations
For much of the 21st century, the development of China-Australia relations remained relatively positive. However, since 2016, the relations rapidly deteriorated, as Australia’s foreign policy became increasingly tilted toward being pro-US and antiChina, and its perception of threats from China increased significantly.
In recent years, affected by the deterioration of political relations and other factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic, bilateral investment flows between the two countries declined sharply, and people-to-people exchanges have been hindered. Australian officials, scholars, and the public have shown a clear decrease in their willingness to participate in activities related to China, due to a significant increase in domestic political and public opinion pressure.
In contrast, bilateral trade relations have shown relatively strong resilience. Despite a series of restrictive measures imposed since the end of 2020, two-way trade was up 35.1 percent year-on-year in 2021, among which Australia’s exports to China rose 40.6 percent. In 2023, bilateral trade reached $230 billion, a yearly increase of 9.8 percent.
These trends have deepened Australia’s perception of contradictions with China and prompted the current administration led by Anthony Albanese to undertake a “rebalancing” of Canberra’s China policy. Although Australia still harbors fear and resistance toward China’s rise, it recognizes the strong complementarity in the economic structure between the two countries and the need to handle the relationship more cautiously.
With the step-by-step settlement of bilateral trade disputes, Australia’s exports to China reached A$19 billion
($12.97 billion) last
March, a year-on-year increase of 31 percent, the highest since 1988. Personnel exchanges and cooperation have gradually resumed between Chinese and Australian universities, think tanks, enterprises, media, and civil society organizations. Last November, Albanese visited China, injecting further momentum into the rapid thawing and turnaround of China-Australia relations.
As Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said at the 2023 International Situation and China Diplomacy Seminar on Jan 9, “China-Australia relations are coming back on the right track, and their comprehensive strategic partnership has been resumed, presenting a virtuous cycle of healthy and stable development”.
In the foreseeable future, there are many opportunities for cooperation between China and Australia on the bilateral, regional, and global levels. There is every reason to believe that the healthy and stable development of China-Australia relations will bring more benefits to the people of both countries and beyond. However, the two countries still need to overcome some disruptions to achieve further improvement in their relations.
The pressure exerted by the US on Australia has escalated enormously, which has become the most significant obstacle to the development of China-Australia relations.
With the US-Australia alliance becoming a key tool for the US to implement its “Indo-Pacific” strategy and to build a “strategic containment circle” around China in the “Indo-Pacific” region, Washington has upgraded the importance of
Australia in its China policy. Australia has been struggling between cultural independence and dependence since its founding. As an Asia-Pacific power, Australia desires to establish a relatively independent cultural identity by integrating into the region. However, as a member of the Western camp, Australia is reluctant to sever its ties with Anglo-American culture amid fears of being abandoned by the West.
This dilemma has created a contradictory mindset in Australia, leading to a situation where it swings between East Asian and Western countries. This has severely damaged the trust between China and Australia, which might also constrain the stable development of relations in the long term.
With the upcoming US presidential election creating additional uncertainties, China-Australia relations might encounter more challenges in 2024.
Substantial progress can only be achieved through the joint efforts of both governments and peoples.
For China, it is important to maintain strategic confidence and show patience with Australia. While seeking to stabilize China-US relations, it should avoid tying its Australia policy to its US policy.
Additionally, China needs to counter the trend of “securitization” through “de-securitization” measures, such as settling bilateral disputes through equal consultation step by step. Moreover, China should keep supporting exchanges and cooperation between Chinese and Australian think tanks, universities, and media, and provide more policy facilitation for Australian people to visit, invest, and study in China.
For Australia, it is necessary to enhance its independent decisionmaking capabilities, avoid becoming a pawn in the US’ strategy to contain China, and address the problem of “over-securitization” in its China policy. Canberra should view China and China-Australia relations from a more rational, pragmatic, and balanced perspective and increase its strategic confidence through trust building and equal consultation with China and other stakeholders. It should also try to create a more favorable public opinion environment in Australia toward ChinaAustralia relations, and provide more support for Australian people to learn about the real China, rather than being held hostage by Western media.