Maintaining world peace To prevent them sparking a catastrophic conflict between powers, strategic misjudgments must be avoided and the folly of allies curbed

One hundred years agoWorld War I broke out. And in July, 120 years ago, the Sino-Japanese War of 18941895 broke out. In July, 77 years ago, Japan launched its full invasion of China. And in July, 61 years ago, the cease-fire agreement of the KoreanWar (1950-1953) was signed. People should reflect on the series of wars.

Statistics show that since the 36th centuryBCthere have been more than 14,600 wars, which have claimed more than 3 billion lives. And from the end ofWorldWar II to 1994 there were more than 200 military conflicts, which killed millions of people.

As the Crimea crisis has deteriorated there was widespread concern that the United States and Russia might end up in a militarily confrontation.

Considering the destructive consequences that would result from a war between two military powers such as theUS andRussia, there is only a very slim possibility that they would choose to engage in a headto-head military clash. However, the possibility cannot be completely ruled out that a strategic misjudgment might spark a conflict between powers.

There is also the possibility that big powers may become embroiled in an armed conflict against their better judgment by binding their interests to other countries. For instance, the US has time and again declared that the US-Japan security pact applies to China’s Diaoyu Islands. That means that should there be an armed conflict between China and Japan over the islands, the US would inevitably join if it is serious about its stance. A war pitting China against the US and Japan would inevitably spell disaster for the whole region.

The current dispute between China and Japan is reminiscent of the Sino-JapanWar of 1894-1895. Some even depict current relations between the two countries as being similar to their ties on the eve of the war 120 years ago.

However, an analysis of their relations now shows this is not the case.

Compared with the situation 120 years ago, both the international power structure and the power relations between China and Japan, as well as their respective security approaches, have experienced enormous changes. Today, China is no longer as weak as it was 120 years ago when it was bullied by a number of imperialist powers and had to offer concessions and beg for peace by paying compensation or ceding territory. Through implementing theMeiji Restoration and the strategy of “departing from Asia and integrating with Europe”, Japan at that time approached or even surpassed the debilitatedQingDynasty (1644-1911) in terms of its economic and military power. And this was one of the main reasons why Japan dared to wage war against the bigger China.

After three decades of reform and opening-up, China has witnessed a fast rise in both its economic strength and its military capabilities, it is no longer the relative weakling as it was some 120 years ago. No country can afford to underestimate China’s status and influence in the world today. China has not only attached more importance to its own national security, it is also pursuing common security with others.

Under its military alliance with the US and that country’s “rebalancing” to the Asia-Pacific, Japan has displayed an unprecedented aggressive military strategy recently, as shown by its accelerated efforts to pursue its military buildup and get rid of the limitations placed on the development of its Self-Defense Forces by its Constitution. However, the pacifism has not been subdued in Japan and has even been on the rise, prompting Shinzo Abe’s hawkish government to have to give its strategic documents a “peaceful tinge”. This also means it is not easy for the Japanese government to embark on a militaristic path again.

Despite its high-profile declaration that its security alliance with Japan is applicable to the Diaoyu Islands, the US’ deepened economic links with China and their common interests mean it does not want a conflict between China and Japan. The US will surely work to stop Japan from going to war with China. It will try to persuade Tokyo not to go beyond the bottom line at the critical time.

Despite continuous global efforts for peace, the power struggles among countries, religious conflicts, racial strife and terrorist activities occurring throughout the world, if allowed to escalate, could result in conflicts or wars that exhaust political and economic resources and endanger human security. All countries should adopt a positive security approach and make joint efforts to maintain world peace and stability and promote common security and development. The author is a professor and director of International Security Research Center, affiliated to PLA International RelationsUniversity.