China Daily Global Edition (USA)

Despite adjusting its structure, it is still a driver for the world

- By XIN ZHIMING xinzhiming@chinadaily.com.cn

China’s economic growth has slowed in recent years, but its contributi­on to the world economy remains significan­tly more than that of other countries’, which signifies the vital role it has played in maintainin­g global economic vitality, say analysts.

China’s GDP growth was 6.9 percent in 2015, the slowest in 25 years. Inthe first half of 2016, it registered an even lower GDP growth of 6.7 percent, and the Internatio­nal Monetary Fund forecast in July that China’sGDPgrowth this year could be 6.6 percent, triggering concerns that the country might be caught in the low-rate growth trap for some time.

Relative to other countries, especially the developed ones, however, China’s growth is quite impressive and it has continued to make a significan­t contributi­on to global growth. In the 1980s and early 1990s, emerging market economies started playing a larger role in global growth, contributi­ng about 25 percent to world economic growth. From the late 1990s until now, emerging-market economies have contribute­d about 70 percent to global economic growth, with China’s contributi­on estimated at about 30 percent, says Wang Guangqian, president of the Central University of Finance and Economics.

Although estimates vary, researcher­s generally agree China’s contributi­on to global economic growth in recent years ranges from 25 percent to 40 percent. From 2011 to 2015, China’s average GDP Ding Yifan, growth was 7.3 percent while the global average was only 2.4 percent, with the United States, Japan and Germany registerin­g 2.4 percent, minus 0.1 percent and 1.6 percent growth, says Wan Xiangyu, a researcher at the Institute of Quantitati­ve and Technical Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. During that period, he says, China contribute­d 25 percent to global GDP growth.

In 2014 alone, China contribute­d 27.8 percent to global growth, making it the top contributo­r that year, says Ding Yifan, a researcher at the Developmen­t Research Center of the State Council, China’s Cabinet. In 2015, China contribute­d about 33 percent to global growth, the IMF said in a report in August.

Although China’s economic growth rate has slowed, given its fast expansion of overall scale, the Chinese economy’s contributi­on to global growth has become even more significan­t.

China has achieved such a growth against the backdrop of the fragile global economic recovery and domestic economic restructur­ing.

The low global growth has affected the demand for China’s exports, one of the traditiona­l growth engines for the Chineseeco­nomy, analysts say. It has also affected the flow of capital into the country.

Onthe domestic front, China has been unswerving­ly pushing forward economic restructur­ing to rebalance its economy and make its growth more sustainabl­e. Such a drive is set to affect its growth, say analysts.

Moreover, China’s growth used to benefit enormously from the so-called dividends of globalizat­ion, economic reform, demographi­cs and industrial­ization, but those factors no longer facilitate its growth, says Liu Yuanchun, researcher of the Renmin University of China.

China’s demographi­c structure, for example, has changed, with the number of young working-age people starting to decline. “China’s trade surplus will also decrease gradually,” Liu says.

Despite these adversitie­s, China has continued to provide solid support for global growth. For example, it invested $118 billion overseas in non-financial fields in 2015, up by 14.7 percent yearon-year, benefiting the economies of destinatio­n countries. “China’s outbound investment has created some miracles,” says Ding.

For instance, in the 1990s, when China did not make any large-scale investment in Africa, the continent was a forgotten land and didn’t attract much overseas investment­s. Entering the 21st century, China started investing in the continent and now it has become a powerful global powerhouse, Ding says. “All this has much to do with China’s large-scale investment in the continent.”

researcher at the Developmen­t Research Center of the State Council China’s contributi­on to global economic growth last year, according to the IMF

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