Polls a turning point for France and EU

The French presidential run-off will see self-proclaimed centrist EmmanuelMacron compete with far-right leaderMarine Le Pen in less than one week. The first-round election result on April 23 came as a shock to many French voters, because for the first time in more than half a century no candidate from an established party made it to the second round.

Macron led the poll with 23.8 percent of the votes while Le Pen won 21.5 percent. Neither Francois Fillon, a conservative and former prime minister, nor leftist leader Jean-LucMelenchon could win more than 20 percent of the votes. Senior politicians, including Fillon, the defeated Republican candidate, were quick to voice their support forMacron in the run-off onMay 7.

The highly charged campaign and the absence of “mainstream” candidates signal an unprecedented change in French politics. It was almost unlikely that any of the 11 French presidential candidates would secure 50 percent of the votes in the first round. But in what has rarely been seen, Macron won against his three closest rivals by only a small margin in the first round, and the traditional left- and right-wing candidates lost to a self-proclaimed centrist whose party was founded just a year ago and a farright leader who is dead set against globalization.

The 2012 elections sawcurrent President FrancoisHollande beat Le Pen by more than 10 percent votes before going head-to-head against then president Nicolas Sarkozy. And that has often been the case in the past elections, The fight in the video is more like a street which saweither a Socialist or Republican candidate holding a decisive sway.

That many French voters chose extreme right and independent leaders over established party leaders, to some extent, indicates that populism and extremist political tendencies are not to be overlooked in the country. Plus, Macron’s narrow win offers a glimpse into the widening divisions among French citizens.

These political changes will be felt by the EuropeanUnion, too. German Chancellor AngelaMerkel and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker congratulatedMacron on his first-round victory, for good reason, as the 39-year-old centrist has not only vowed to keep France in theEU but also vowed to take measures to boost Europe’s economy.

Le Pen, on the other hand, believes economic globalization could put French civilization in danger, and has said she would consider pulling out of the EU and abolishing the euro if elected to the highest office. These seemingly wild pledges did offer another option to a number of French voters who have grown increasingly impatient with the wushu, current establishment. Notwithstanding that reality, Le Pen’s election will inject more uncertainty into Europe.

Seen on larger canvas, the French presidential election could once again put globalization at a historic crossroad. Although both are known as “anti-establishment”, Macron is in favor of free trade and controlled immigration, and urges France to play a pivotal role in Europe, while Le Pen emphasizes the need to protect domestic enterprises from competition. One way or the other, a turning point for France and the EU will emerge in less than one week. The author is an associate professor at the University of International Relations, and a research fellow at the Center for China and Globalization.

The United States, despite claiming to have lost its “strategic patience”, has shown overall restraint by playing down its calls for military action against Pyongyang. It has also stepped up efforts to communicate and cooperate with China to defuse the situation, reflecting its better understanding of how to restore peace and stability on the peninsula.

However, on April 26 the US Air Force conducted an unarmed intercontinental ballistic missile test with reportedly the DPRK as the imaginary enemy. It has also dispatched the aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson toward the Korean Peninsula.

Pouring oil on fire, Washington and Seoul have also accelerated their efforts to deploy an advanced US missile defense system in the Republic of Korea despite strong opposition from Chinese and ROK citizens. On paper, the US’ Terminal High Altitude Area Defense antimissile system is intended to protect the ROK from missile attacks from the DPRK, but its surveillance capability is also bound to undermine the security interests of other countries, including China’s.

A growing number of people in the ROK believe THAAD will only make their country unsafe, and they have staged massive protests against its deployment. CheongWooksik, director of the ROK-based Peace Network, recently published a book, Everything about THAAD, in which he says his country could be the biggest victim of deploying THAAD on its soil.

As far as Pyongyang is concerned, it has interpreted these military maneuverings as provocations and threats to its security. And since the DPRK responded to such threats with an even bigger threat, its failed missile launch on Saturday was not surprising.

On Sunday, officials in Seoul saidWashington had reaffirmed it would bear the cost of deploying THAAD on ROK soil after US President Donald Trump declared a fewdays ago that Seoul should pay $1 billion for the anti-missile system.

Analysts say Pyongyang’s missile launch on Saturdaymay have prompted the US to make a U-turn on the cost issue, paving the way for completing the THAAD deployment between July and September, much earlier than the original schedule of the end of the year.

In fact, parts of the THAAD battery were installed last week, and ROK defense officials said it already has an initial operational capability.

With the ROK presidential election round the corner, the US may want to make the deployment of THAAD an established fact so that whoever wins the election will have little room to delay the installation, let alone cancel it.

Such political calculation is dangerous because it can further complicate the already complex and volatile situation on the peninsula, and once the situation goes out of control, no party can emerge as a winner.

... the French presidential election could once again put globalization at a historic crossroad.

CAI MENG / CHINA DAILY