Abe still vulnerable despite vote victory

Low popularity will continue to threaten the Japanese leader

TOKYO — Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s dominance of the political scene will probably carry on after his ruling camp won a two-thirds “supermajority” in Sunday’s lower house election, local analysts said.

But the victory, largely a “win by default”, will also see the prime minister continue to struggle with low popularity that would backfire on him if he continues with some controversial policies, they added.

Sunday’s election saw the ruling Liberal Democratic Party secure a stable majority and thus a big win for Abe.

While attributing the victory largely to a disparate opposition camp which had little time to fully gear up, and an electorate system that worked in the ruling camp’s favor, analysts admitted that the victory would boost Abe’s chance for winning a third term in the LDP presidential election next autumn.

“It’s becoming more or less certain now that Abe will become the longest-serving prime minister in postwar Japan,” said Yoichi Funabashi, political analyst and former editor in chief of Asahi Shimbun newspaper.

Funabashi said the weak opposition was also failing to form a threat to the ruling camp, with the once-main opposition Democratic Party now splitting into four parts — those joining the Party of Hope, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, those running as independents, and the DP members in the upper house of parliament.

“The CDPJ is now the main opposition, with 54 seats in the lower house. But they are still the smallest leading opposition over half a century,” Funabashi said.

As for the Party of Hope which shared the LDP’s conservative views on constitutional change and security laws, after its fatal mistake of rejecting the liberal wing of the DP, the public’s enthusiasm for it has largely ebbed.

“Japan still needs to consolidate a major viable opposition party that is able to contend the ruling party and give options to the voters,” Funabashi said.

Low popularity

Despite a landslide win, Abe is still facing a low rate of public support, analysts also said.

“The people are still opposed to the Abe administration and Abe. While Abe tries to push forward his policies with the momentum of the election win, his support rate might still drop drastically. There might be much chaos,” said Ukeru Magosaki, a former senior official with Japan’s Foreign Ministry.

An Asahi Shimbun election exit poll showed that 47 percent of the voters did not want Abe to stay as prime minister. In a different poll by Kyodo News, 51 percent said they did not trust him.

“The Moritomo scandal, Kake educational institute scandal, economic deterioration, the DPRK issue, cabinet scandals, slip of speech ... it is not known yet from which point the regime will be shaken,” said Tase Yasuhiro, political analyst and Nikkei columnist.

“The point is whether there is a possibility that the people will get bored with the Abe administration. People want a stable government for the economy’s sake, but they also want reform in politics,” he said.

Sunday’s victory is also expected give the ruling bloc a new impetus to pursue the prime minister’s long-term ambition of revising the postwar Pacifist Constitution, which could cause further division and chaos among the people, local analysts said.

Abe told a television program after the election that he expects “debates on revising the Constitution to deepen” in the parliament so as to seek more support on the issue.

“It is Abe’s biggest passion to revise the Constitution. But I think the chance for success is still very slim. I would say it won’t happen in the next three or four years,” said Funabashi.

He said opposition parties such as the CDPJ will not compromise on the issue, leaving the ruling camp unable to force it through parliament.

“The public will be much split up, and at the end of day they may say no. That will be very challenging for the Abe government,” Funabashi said.

People want a stable government for the economy’s sake, but they also want reform in politics.” Tase Yasuhiro, political analyst and Nikkei columnist