China Daily Global Edition (USA)
NATION MOVES TO AVERT DEMOGRAPHIC TIME BOMB
The government is looking to raise the number of births
Yang Dan is envious every time she hears that a woman she knows is having a second child. However, the mother of a 5-year-old boy in Panjin, Liaoning province, is adamant that she will not extend her family; at least not for a few more years.
“I think of my old age sometimes. If I were to have a second child, my husband and I would have two children to take care of us in turn when we are too sick or old to cope. Hopefully, they would not feel too burdened,” the 33-year-old said. “But the pressure of having a second child is too huge for us to bear at the moment.”
Many women are echoing Yang’s opinion. The number of births is declining in China, and there were approximately 17.23 million last year, about 630,000 fewer than in 2016, according to statistics recently released by the National Bureau of Statistics.
In 2016, the central government relaxed the family planning policy, which restricted most couples to one child, allowing all families to have two children, while some are allowed to have more. Moreover, a range of other measures have been implemented to encourage more births.
There is growing concern that the country may experience a demographic time bomb, because in the decades to come the number of young people is likely to fall below the number required to maintain an optimum level of employment. That has led some experts to question whether the second-child policy has been effective.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, people age 60 and older accounted for 17.3 percent of the population last year, compared with 16.7 percent in 2016.
If the current population level is to be maintained, each woman has to give birth to an average number of babies.
The number, or “replacement rate”, is 2.1 in developed countries, but in less-developed countries it is 2.3, because of higher death rates for both children and adults.
Last year, the total fertility rate in China was 1.615, which was far lower than the required replacement rate of 2.3.
The number fell by 0.059 from the 2016 level, according to Liu Houlian, a researcher at the China Population and Development Research Center, who noted that the decline simply reflected a short-term fluctuation.
So, why are fewer couples opting to extend their families?
Many cite the financial pressure that results from having children, the inescapable interruption to career development and a decline in traditional beliefs.
On Monday, Yang Wenzhuang, chief of grassroots family planning supervision at the National Health and Family Planning Commission, quoted the results of a recent survey conducted on the commission’s behalf by a third party.
He said the survey indicated that more than 82 percent of couples age 35 and younger gave the increased financial burden as the main reason for not having a second child. Another major reason was that couples have no time to take care of an extra child, according to Yang.
Housing, tuition
“For couples in big cities such as Beijing and Shanghai, housing is also a big concern,” he said.
“Having a second child means they have to move to a bigger house, but property prices are extremely high now.”
Yang Dan, who lives in Panjin, Liaoning province, works as an assistant manager at an agricultural research institute. Her husband is a local government official.
The couple spends about 4,000 yuan ($636) a month on their 5-year-old son, including kindergarten fees and four extracurricular classes — drawing, dancing, handicraft and an intelligence-development class.
The outlay accounts for almost one-third of their combined monthly salaries of more than 12,000 yuan.
“In the past, having one more child didn’t raise the family’s expenditure too much, but things are different nowadays because you have to provide the best possible conditions for your child,” Yang Dan said.
The couple doesn’t employ a nanny, but that would be essential if they decided to have a second child.
The only other option would be for Yang Dan to quit her job and become a full-time mother. Either way, the cost would be high.
“Although Panjin is not a big city, finding a nanny would not be easy. One of my friends told me she spends more than 10,000 yuan a month on her daughter and the family nanny,” she said.
Meanwhile Liu Xu, who works for a State-owned enterprise in Beijing, has also rejected the idea of having a second child.
“There is no room in our house for another kid, and property prices in the capital mean we don’t have enough money to buy a bigger house,” he said.
Liu has a 5-year-old boy and his family of three lives in a one-bedroom apartment.
He has enrolled the boy in three classes outside of school — English, painting and mathematics — which costs about 60,000 yuan a year, more than 30 percent of his annual income, he said.
“Many parents I know, people who are not rich, have enrolled their child in at least one expensive class,” he said.
However having a child is expensive even before the parents get the newborn home.
Yang Dan’s son was born prematurely at a hospital in Shenyang, the provincial capital, and the procedure cost the couple more than 130,000 yuan.
She said she would stay at a hospital in Shenyang again if she had a second child because establishments in the city have better facilities and more-skillful doctors.
Although it is difficult to find a bed in a top public hospital in Shenyang, it’s easy to find one in a high-end private hospital, but the cost would be high, she added.
Career sacrifice
If couples do decide to have a second child, the mother may have to sacrifice her career.
In addition to her regular job, Yang Dan runs a small business. If she had another child, she would have to close the business, at least, and possibly even quit her job, too.
However, the pressure the older generation has traditionally exerted on young people to have children has been diminishing recently.
Yang Dan said her parents do not want her to have another child and prefer that she focuses on her own life. Her
Yang Dan,
parents-in-law also respect her opinion, she said.
Fewer births
All of these factors have resulted in fewer babies being born.
Wu Haitao, director of Fengtai Xiluoyuan Community Health Center in Beijing’s Fengtai district, has witnessed the change.
He said the number of children born in the community last year fell slightly compared with 2016.
He noted that every baby born in the community must be given mandatory free vaccinations at the health center.
“We expected to see a rise in the number of newborn babies receiving vaccines at the center, but the number actually fell a little,” he said.
“I think it is natural that with social development the birth rate will fall, as has happened in some other countries such as Japan. In addition, people face heavy financial pressures, which will affect their decision about having another child.”
Experts said the number of second children born since 2016 has not been enough to counter a decline in the number of first babies.
The main reason for the decline in the number of births last year was the result of a fall in the number of first children being born, according to Li Xiru, chief of population and employment at the National Bureau of Statistics, in an article published on the bureau’s website.
The overall decline, which surprised many people including experts, prompted public debate about the effect of the universal second-child policy, with some people even worrying about a drastic decline in the population.
However, 51 percent of the babies born last year were second children, a rise of 5 percentage points from 2016, according to the National Health and Family Planning Commission.
Li said the number of firstchild births last year was 7.2 million, a fall of 2.5 million compared with 2016.
Yuan Xin, a professor of population studies at Nankai University in Tianjin, believes the decline in the number of births will become more pronounced in the next few years, with the number of women of childbearing age — those between 15 and 49 — falling by about 5.2 million per year.
In addition many people, especially among the younger generation, are less willing to have children for reasons that have little to do with financial pressures.
They include dwindling adherence to traditional values, such as maintaining the family line, and less need to have children to look after them in old age, Yuan said.
Stability
Huang Kuangshi, a researcher at the China Population and Development Research Center, said factors such as longer life expectancy will narrow the gap produced by the lower birth rate, although that will mean a larger number of older people in society.
Even in the worst-case scenario, which assumes that the population will start to decline in 2022, the biggest fall would occur in 2062, which would see a decline of 13.5 million from the previous year, he said.
However, he added that would only account for 1.2 percent of the total population at the time.
It is inevitable that the population will start to shrink in about 2030, but it is possible to improve the birth rate by abolishing restrictions and establishing a social environment that encourages birth, he said.
“Given the total number of births in China every year, which stands at about 17 million, even a fall of 1 million per year is normal and would not affect population stability,” he said.
Numbers to peak
By contrast, Yang Wenzhuang, from the National Health and Family Planning Commission, does not believe the population will decline drastically. Instead, he believes it will rise and then stabilize
In his opinion, the population will peak at 1.45 billion in about 2030, before falling back to about 1.38 billion by 2050, and about 1 billion by the end of the century.
“It has been estimated that it would take 40 years (19812021) for China’s population to rise to 1.4 billion from 1 billion, and about another 70 years or so for it to fall to 1 billion again,” he said.
In an effort to promote balanced population development, the National Health and Family Planning Commission will improve population monitoring, prediction and research, and provide assistance to solve the challenges facing couples in having and raising children, according to a statement published by the commission on Jan 18.
Following the introduction of the universal second-child policy in 2016, the commission released a series of measures designed to minimize risks during pregnancy.
The measures included encouraging local health authorities to raise the number of obstetrics beds in hospitals, improving training for obstetricians and providing more equipment in maternity units.
Yuan suggested that authorities now need to take more concrete measures to encourage births so the universal second-child policy will work more effectively.
“For example, authorities must build more infant nurseries and public kindergartens, which will charge far less than private ones,” he said.
In the past, having one more child didn’t raise the family’s expenditure too much, but things are different nowadays.” mother of a 5-year-old boy in Panjin, Liaoning province