China Daily Global Edition (USA)
Experts don’t expect trade tipping point
The blistering trade friction between the United States and China, in which both countries have slapped tariffs on billions of dollars of each other’s goods, does not mean a tipping point for the Sino-US relationship, which is the “most consequential” in the world, experts said on Thursday.
“I would say we’re nowhere near a tipping point,” David Dollar, senior fellow of John L. Thornton China Center, Brookings Institution, said when asked if the world’s top two economies, locked in trade tensions, are approaching a turning or tipping point, as some critics suggested.
“Let’s not forget, there’s still a tremendous amount of trade between the US and China, there’re 400,000 Chinese students in the US, and there’s American tourists going to China . ... So a little bit of friction does not necessarily mean a turning point,” he said. “Hopefully this will be rather temporary, and we’ll get back to healthy development of our relationship.”
Dollar, a former US Treasury economic and financial emissary to China, made the remarks on the sidelines of a forum attended by US think tank researchers and a Chinese delegation of researchers and former government officials, led by former vice-foreign minister Fu Ying.
Dollar said the US and Chinese sides had a frank exchange at the Brookings Institution on Thursday, with each side lodging their “legitimate complaints”.
“I think both sides would like to see a successful relationship,” he said about the discussions.
The forum followed the conclusion of a weeklong hearings in Washington on the US administration’s proposed 25 percent duties on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports.
“I’ve been opposed to these US tariffs right from the start. I don’t think these are good instrument,” Dollar said. “So for me, a happy solution is China opens up the economy more, and the US pulls back from this trade war.”
“I believe that the US-China relationship is the most consequential relationship that the United States enjoys today, and I believe it will be the most consequential relationship for the 21st century,” said John Allen, president of the Brookings Institution.
Such “consequential relationship” features four C’s, namely, cooperation, competition, confrontation and conflict, according to Allen, a retired United States Marine Corps four-star general.
He said Americans and
Let’s not forget, there’s still a tremendous amount of trade between the US and China.”
David Dollar, senior fellow of John L. Thornton China Center
Chinese could look for ways to cooperate, and there is much they can do together for the good of all human kind.
“We should expect that the two great nations in the world will compete. But if we’re wise, we should see in that competition, opportunities, because we’re better for the constructive competition over time,” he said.
On occasions when confrontation occurs, the two sides must manage it and have to prevent conflict between the United States and China, he said.
Richard Bush, a senior fellow at the John L. Thornton China Center at Brookings, said he had “a certain amount of sympathy” with the Chinese government in dealing with a “disorganized” administration like “the one we have”.
He said China needs to be clear on what its own policies are and “take measured actions in response to unreasonable things that Trump administration does”.
Early on Thursday, the Chinese delegation also had a symposium at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
Nicholas Lardy, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and an expert on the Chinese economy, said the discussion at the CSIS was candid and productive, with many specific suggestions on what might be done to alleviate trade tensions.