Time for US to show sincerity

Despite US President Donald Trump’s declaration that the “trade war with China is easy to win”, in fact, no one will emerge winner in a trade war. As the disputes drag on, the US economy will suffer major setbacks and American consumers will be forced to bear the brunt.

And since China’s capability to weather tough economic storms is well known, it is too early to say which side has the upper hand in this trade conflict.

As a Chinese saying goes, a fire at the city gate brings disaster to the fish in the moat. Other countries may gain in the short term, but are certain to lose in the long run because of the spillover effects of the Sino-US trade conflict.

That said, in the white paper, China has expressed its intension to ease tensions. So the ball is now in the US’ court.

Also, it should be noted that despite many of the debates in the US on China and the trade conflict are incorrect, yet they remain unchallenged by the Chinese side. Moreover, the investigation report under Section 301 of the US Trade Act of 1974 accuses many Chinese enterprises, including China National Offshore Oil Corporation, of stealing intellectual property. But the enterprises have not refuted or responded to the accusations, which is rather weird and upsetting.

The problem for the ROK is that President Moon Jae-in’s approval rating is at its lowest because of the poor results of his economic revival policies. But still the Pyongyang declaration is historic achievement for Moon.

However, it is difficult for Seoul to realize all the agreements. Cultural, environmental management, public health and medical care exchanges are not a big problem. But without the United Nations lifting the sanctions against Pyongyang, it will be impossible for the two sides to work together to establish railway connectivity, and build the Gaeseong industrial complex, Mount Geumgang tourism project, a west-coast special economic zone and an east-coast special tourism zone.

Besides, its alliance with the United States will create problems for the ROK as a mediator between Washington and Pyongyang. During the Pyongyang summit, DPRK leader Kim Jong-un attributed the success of his meeting with US President Donald Trump to Moon’s mediation, and thus appreciated Seoul’s role as a mediator between Washington and Pyongyang.

But since the US insists on comprehensive denuclearization, it may not agree with the DPRK’s phased denuclearization plan. Moreover, the ROK is in a dilemma, because it signed the Pyongyang Joint Declaration to cease military hostilities while US Defense Secretary James Mattis said in August that the US has no plans to suspend joint US-ROK military exercises, which may evoke an angry response from the DPRK.

Although Trump welcomed the inter-Korean summit via Twitter, the olive branch delivered by the DPRK has created problems for the US before the midterm elections in November. When the US sought the DPRK’s timetable for denuclearization, Kim wrote a personal letter to Trump seeking another US-DPRK summit and expressed his willingness to gradually dismantle the nuclear and missile test sites.

Pyongyang’s substantial denuclearization efforts prompted Washington to reply that it was ready to hold another round of talks. Washington may hold talks with Pyongyang again after the midterm elections and might agree to cancel its joint military drills with the ROK only after ensuring the DPRK has fulfilled its denuclearization promises.

Even though the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula is a long and complicated process, the Pyongyang declaration has further eased the tensions in Northeast Asia and is the right step toward restoring permanent peace on the peninsula. China’s proposal that the US stop its joint military drills near the DPRK’s waters and, in response, the DPRK take comprehensive denuclearization measures has played an important role in the peace process. Now, more countries should contribute to the peace process, in order to restore permanent peace on and promote the development of the peninsula and the region.