US’ move hangs a sword over Russia

On Saturday, facing a group of Republican Party supporters, US President Donald Trump said he would withdraw the United States from the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty with Russia. The latter responded on Sunday that it will take a series of countermeasures if the US does pull out. Two experts shared their views with China Daily’s Zhang Zhouxiang:

Diao Daming, an associate professor on international relations at Renmin University of China

Trump seeking advantage at cost of US allies’ security

The importance and significance of the INF can never be overstated. Signed in 1987 between the US and the Soviet Union, the INF was the first important agreement between the two superpowers on truly and effectively eliminating nuclear weapons. It also laid a sound basis for the two countries to sign the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, or START I, in 1991.

Now, more than two decades after the end of the Cold War, the balance between the US and Soviet Union no longer exists, and the US has kept high strategic pressure over Russia. Especially, with their open wrestling on issues such as NATO expansion, Ukraine, the civil war in Syria as well as Iran nuclear issues, the fragile trust between the US and Russia has been eroded.

Specifically, concerning Trump’s decision on the INF, he only made the announcement ahead of the midterm elections, without mentioning any exact schedule. Actually, even if the US government officially notifies Russia it will exit from INF one day, there will be a buffer period of six months after the announcement.

We do not know Trump’s true intention, but by making the announcement he is probably trying to achieve at least two things. First, he has been criticized for being “too soft” on Russia. By threatening to exit from the INF, he can, to some extent, change that perception and rally votes for the Republican Party.

Second, he could be trying to hang a sword over Russia and be trying to gain an advantage when bargaining with the latter on other issues. For example, he might be trying to gain the upper hand on Syria and Iran by threatening to exit from the INF.

It should be noted that the US is seeking the upper hand at the cost of Europe’s sense of security and amid escalating conflicts between NATO and Russia. Besides, the move might have a domino effect and damage the international society’s faith in achieving nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament. Thus there is good reason to call Trump’s move “dangerous”.

Announcement comes ahead of Bolton’s talks with Putin

Trump’s announcement of intending to pull the US from the INF is not that surprising, considering his decision to withdraw the US from other international treaties and organizations.

Since taking office, Trump has shown he intends to maintain the hegemony of the US even at the cost of breaking the US government’s past promises and achievements.

This time, his administration is being a bit smarter by blaming Russia for breaking the INF first by researching and installing SSC-8 land-based cruise missiles. Russia has said the range of the missiles does not exceeded 500 kilometers so they are permitted under the terms of the treaty.

Trump’s claim to exit the INF has a clear target: Russia. By exiting from the INF, the US is actually flexing its muscles toward its old opponent and trying to gain a strategic advantage over it. If both sides exit from the INF, the US will be able to install intermediate-range missiles in Poland and Romania, thus putting the European part of Russia within their range. Russia has no place to install such missiles to threaten the US and its NATO partners.

Another possibility of Trump announcing the withdrawal is to strategically scam Russia. Trump’s National Security Adviser John Bolton visited Moscow and talked with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday and Tuesday. By claiming to exit from INF, the US government will be able to either start a new round of arms race with Russia, or renegotiate with it on updating INT to better meet its interests.

Chen Hui, a professor on US-Russia relations at Nanjing University

SHI YU / CHINA DAILY