Are Markets for Rare U.S. Coins Poised to Skyrocket?

dollar for $6,300. The coin was one that otherwise interested collectors and dealers of uncirculated Capped Bust halves just did not notice in February 2020. For a long time, the Greysheet ‘dealer bid’ for this coin has been above $7,000. The Greysheet ‘dealer bid’ for a CAC verified MS-65 1808 half has been much higher than $7,000. The CPG-CAC retail guide has placed this coin in the $9,000 to $10,000 range for all of 2020. The Numismedia.com retail price has also been in the $9,000 to $10,000 range in 2020 and in 2019.

In this same auction in Long Beach, California, in

February 2020, Heritage sold a CAC verified, PCGS graded AU-55 1876 $10 gold coin for $26,400. Back in April 2014, Heritage auctioned a CAC verified, NGC graded AU-55

1876 $10 gold coin for $41,125. The 1876 $10 gold coin issue is scarce. I suggest that maybe seventy-five are extant.

For the first seven months of 2020, the Greysheet ‘dealer bid’ has been $30,000 for a PCGS or NGC (Numismatic Guaranty Corporation) graded AU-55 1876 $10 gold coin, with or without CAC verification. The CPG retail guide price has been $36,300. Additionally, this 1876 is one of the more original looking and healthier $10 gold coins in the consignment of the Harvey Jacobson collection that Heritage auctioned in February 2020. I viewed them all and attended the event. While some of Jacobson’s coins brought retail prices, there is no doubt that the $26,400 price realized for this 1876 $10 coin was more of a wholesale price than a retail price.

On February 16, 2020, the Goldbergs auctioned Doug Bird’s collection of large cents in Los Angeles. One of the best deals in this auction was the $75,000 paid for Bird’s best 1800/1798 overdate large cent. Although this coin was CAC verified and PCGS certified as MS-65 with a ‘Brown’ designation, this same coin was NGC certified as MS-65 with a ‘Red and Brown’ (RB) designation when Heritage auctioned it in January 2005 for $92,000. Of any die pairing, this is the finest known 1800/1798 overdate large cent that I have ever seen. In my opinion, this 1800/1798 overdate large cent has terrific color. The whole coin is really attractive, a large cent that I will never forget.

In April 2020 and again in July 2020, the CPG published retail guide price for this 1800/1798 large cent was $84,700. As of July 28, 2020, the Numismedia.com retail value for this coin is $115,000. Since the auction in February, this coin has been offered by a reputable dealer for $97,500. Indeed, the $75,000 price realized on February 16 was a wholesale price or close to a wholesale price.

On January 9, 2020, Rollo Fox’s primary set of Saint Gaudens $20 gold coins was auctioned at the FUN Convention in Orlando. Rollo’s PCGS graded MS-66+ 1910-D double eagle realized $19,200. The Rollo Fox 1910-D Saint was CAC verified as an MS-66 grade coin. Experts at CAC ignore plus designations assigned PCGS and NGC. In February 2018, Heritage auctioned a different PCGS graded MS-66+ 1910-D for $38,400. Moreover, in April 2020, Heritage sold Rollo Fox’s duplicate 1910-D $20 gold coin, which was also PCGS graded MS-66+ and CAC verified, for $25,200.

The 1910-D Saint auctioned in January was wonderfully brilliant with neat natural tones, and a great looking coin. While the PCGS price guide value was $30,000, I concluded that a mid-retail price would have been around $26,000. The $19,200 auction price in January was clearly a wholesale price and would have been a logical acquisition for a profit-hopeful collector.

On January 9, 2020, an 1828 half dollar sold for $28,800, one of the best deals in the whole FUN auction event.

This 1828 is of the major variety with a ‘Square Base 2’ and ‘Large 8s’ in the numerals of the year’ 1828.’ It was

PCGS graded MS-66, and CAC verified. This 1828 half dollar was one of my favorite coins in the whole FUN auction. The front of the coin is almost flawless. There are just a few minimal hits. The gray, green, russet, apricot and yellow tones are legitimate and elegant.

In January, I carefully examined this 1828 half dollar and spent hours researching it. I found Greysheet and

CPG prices to be very accurate for this 1828 half dollar.

The Greysheet’ dealer bid’ for a CAC verified MS-66

1828 ‘Square Base 2 – Large 8’ half dollar was $30,000, just 9% more than the non-CAC Greysheet’ dealer bid,’ $27,500. These are or at least were top wholesale prices.

The CPG-CAC retail guide value of $36,300 is in line with market data and logic. The $28,800 price realized in the auction was in the wholesale range at the time.

An 1892 $20 gold coin in this same FUN (Florida United Numismatists) auction was also a good deal. The price realized would have been appropriate for a profit-hopeful collector. This 1892 double eagle was PCGS certified as MS-63+, and CAC verified as an MS-63 grade coin.

Before the auction, the Greysheet’ dealer bid’ for a

CAC verified PCGS or NGC graded MS-63 1892 $20 gold coin was $38,000. Although experts at CAC ignore plus designations by PCGS or NGC, many buyers do not ignore them. Indeed, many buyers are willing to pay more for a coin with a plus designation than for a coin of the same date and type with the same PCGS whole number grade but no plus designation. In January, the top-wholesale level for this coin was around $40,000. A central retail price would have been about $48,000. This 1892 double eagle realized $36,040.20, a very good deal.

Profit-hopeful collectors can buy coins at near-wholesale vor even clear wholesale prices in major auctions, but many coins they pursue may bring clear retail prices. Price guides should not be taken too seriously. It is a good idea to consider many lots before an auction and do some research.