Heading into the final stretch
Six questions about election night and what happens after
In so many ways, this election is unlike any other.
No matter how you feel about the candidates on your ballot, we're voting during a global pandemic, with millions more casting ballots by mail than in years past. It's normal that you have questions about how this election is going to go. A lot of questions.
We've answered six of them about what to expect on Election Night — and after.
What’s the state of the presidential race going into Election Day, and
what are the key states to watch?
Former Vice President Joe Biden leads by between 7.5 and nine points nationally, according to two of the most popular polling averages.
But it’s not a national election, not really. Although the election is held to select a single president, it’s really better to think of it as a series of state races happening at the same time.
The six main swing states to watch this year are Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Florida and North Carolina.
“You should know Florida by 1 a. m., unless it is very, very close, which it could be,” said Clifford Brown, professor at Union College. “If Biden carries Florida by 1 a. m., it’s over. If Biden is narrowly ahead in Florida, it is probably going to go his way.”
The consensus among experts is that President Donald Trump is a substantial underdog, although he still holds a realistic chance of winning because he is more popular in the all- important swing states than he is nationally.
When will we know who won the presidential election?
Polls will begin closing for the first states at 6 p. m., EST on Nov. 3. Unlike in years past, experts say it is unlikely we will have a winner on Election Night. Because of the expansion of mail- in voting this year in many states due to COVID- 19, results may be delayed — particularly in states that are not used to counting large numbers of such ballots.
“It is unlikely that we will be confident about the winner until Friday, November 6th. And it is entirely possible that we will not be confident about projecting a winner until Friday the 13th, which feels appropriate for 2020,” wrote Christopher Mann, a political science professor at Skidmore College.
Large television network news organizations “call” races by looking at the official vote count as it comes in and surveys of voters, a practice known as “exit polling," to make inferences about how the final vote count will look.
If Trump wins, it's likely it'll be a nail biter. But if the polls hold, and Biden runs out far ahead on election night, we may have a good idea of how the vote count will look once the dust settles — even if the race isn't officially over.
“I think if Biden is running a six- point margin nationally, the answer is you will ( know) that Election Night,” Brown said. He added that news networks may not officially call the race, but “we should know where it’s going.”
What happens if a candidate declares themselves a winner before the full results are in?
Picture this: it’s election night and tallies from the polls are looking good for Republicans. But there’s still lots of mail- in ballots to be counted. 2020 is different from past elections because there is record mail- in ballot use this year and generally more Democrats than Republicans are voting by mail. It's possibly we see an early "red mirage,” Mann said, presented by the in- person votes, followed by a “blue wave” as the mail- in ballots are counted.
If a candidate declares himself winner in the “mirage” phase, does that change anything?
“Candidate declarations of victory are meaningless,” Mann said. "If a candidate declares themselves the winner before results are in, and especially before any news organizations project them to be the winner, I expect this to be met with skepticism and perhaps scorn."
Brown warned that declarations of victory could be a candidate tactic used to sow doubt in the results and set the table for challenges. Brown said Trump might make an early claim of victory to set up later claims that the election has been “stolen from him.” If Biden's path to victory is clear, he may try to block this tactic by declaring victory himself.
Over the course of weeks, actual election results will be tallied, certified and audited by election officials across the country.
What’s the worst case scenario for election chaos?
While we don’t want to scare you, we do want to prepare you. There are a few scenarios that could make for a messy post- election period.
First, it is nearly certain that in many places there will be legal challenges to election procedures – like how ballots are counted — and results. Some challenges have already started. For example, the U. S. Supreme Court dealt with two electionrelated lawsuits this week and allowed election officials to receive and count absentee ballots for several days after Nov. 3 in Pennsylvania and North Carolina.
“From president down to dogcatcher, many contests will be ' within the margin of litigation,’ where a successful legal challenge changes the winner,” Mann said.
Second, there could be protests around the country or in certain locations in reaction to the results, delays in counting, court rulings or other developments.
Finally, in the least likely scenario, if neither presidential candidate wins 270 electoral college votes or if the results of the popular vote are still unclear on Dec. 14 when state electors meet to cast their ballots, one or more state legislatures could theoretically decide how their state’s electoral college votes are cast. The newlyelected U. S. Congress would be in charge of accepting those results in January, with the House taking jurisdiction over the presidential result and the Senate overseeing the vice presidency, Brown said.
Will in- person voting cause COVID- 19 outbreaks?
The short answer is maybe in some places, but precautions are being taken. Connecticut will require masks at the polls, ensuring social distancing, and increase cleaning among steps.
“I plan to vote in person and I think it’s going to be a safe experience for the voters of Connecticut,” said Deidre Gifford, acting commissioner of the Connecticut Department of Public Health.
Like other “mass gatherings” that bring people together, voting could cause some spread of the virus, particularly if there are significant crowds, long lines and wait lines or people not wearing masks, said Sally Friedman, associate professor of political science at the State University of New York at Albany.
Wisconsin’s April 7 primary saw long lines and waits in many places and 71 out of 400,000 people who voted in person contracted covid- 19, but it was not definitely clear whether those cases were caused by voting or other exposures, the Wisconsin State Journal reported.
“The biggest impact on Election Day is likely to be fear of outbreaks in places where COVID- 19 is out of control deterring people from going to the polls,” Mann said.
What’s going to happen with the House and Senate?
Democrats are very likely to keep their House majority and might expand their margin, while the Senate, presently controlled by Republicans, could go either way.
In the Senate, there are 23 Republicans up for reelection and 12 Democrats. Democrats need to flip four net seats to take control or flip three seats and the White House. The vice president breaks ties in the Senate.
There are close races in Alabama, Michigan, Maine, Iowa, Montana, North Carolina, South Carolina, Colorado and two in Georgia.
Ultimately, it comes down to a handful of close elections, any one of which could stretch late into the night or for days or weeks of recounts and mail ballots being counted.
Even if the presidential race ends Tuesday night, the Senate election could stretch on for two more months if it comes down to Georgia races deciding Senate control: Georgia has a rule that if no candidate wins more than 50 percent of the vote, a runoff election is later held between the top two finishers.