What does a
Biden presidency mean for the Nutmeg state?
WASHINGTON — A Joe Biden presidency is a new opportunity for Connecticut to win additional federal investment and recover from the grips of the coronavirus pandemic, as the blue state and its representatives can expect a closer relationship with the Democrat and his administration, replacing an often antagonistic rapport with President Donald Trump.
“This is going to be a unique time in history,” predicted Gov. Ned Lamont. “You’re going to have a president making available money for us to fix the transportation system that’s been falling apart over the last generation or so.”
If Washington can shake off its tradition of gridlock, a Biden administration most immediately could mean more coronavirus relief than Trump would approve, sending money to schools, states and health providers. Down the road, it may deliver transportation and energy investments to the state, a return to Obama- era climate standards and higher taxes for the state’s wealthiest residents.
But the extent of the changes Biden will be able to deliver hinge largely on the fate of the U. S. Senate, which may not be decided until Jan. 5, when Georgia will have two run- off elections for its Senate seats.
A Democratic majority Senate would hand the party control of the Congress and the White House, handing Biden a smooth runway for his agenda. A Republican- led Senate would necessitate bipartisan cooperation to pass legislation and give Republicans opportunity to block bills and judicial and cabinet appointments.
Connecticut’s Democratic leaders forecast a sunny outlook for Connecticut under a Biden administration, even as the state struggles with a $ 1.3 billion budget gap and a deadly virus suppressing swaths of the state’s economy.
They expect an open door to the new administration and a receptive ear, after Gov. Ned Lamont and the Connecticut congressional delegation emerged as strong Biden supporters during his campaign. Some, like U. S. Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D- Conn., and Rep. Rosa DeLauro, D- 3, have enjoyed a close relationship with Biden and his children for decades.
“Joe Biden is going to be a seismically good figure for Connecticut,” declared Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D- Conn. “If you wanted someone who could work with a Republican Congress, there is no one better, elected or unelected, than Joe Biden.”
U. S. Rep. Jim Himes, D- 4, said he expects the Connecticut delegation to have a “pretty significant voice inside the White House.”
“He’s a northeasterner so he understands our issues,” Himes said. “He understands transportation — that man spent more time on Amtrak than I ever will.”
The 19- point Biden victory in Connecticut combined with another Democratic sweep of the state House, Senate and governor’s mansion will likely be bad for state taxpayers, state GOP Chairman J. R. Romano said.
“I guarantee that in a year there will be buyer’s remorse, when Democrats raises taxes and create highway tolls,” Romano said. After the legislature balked on trucks- only highway tolls in February, Lamont said the issue was dead, repeating the assessment on Wednesday the day after the election.
If Congress does not approve a coronavirus relief package during the final month and a half of Trump’s term, a major package to curb the virus and stimulate the economy will be the top item on Biden’s to do list.
“I think we can start working under the assumption that we’re going to get significant state and local aid,” said Lamont. “That allows mayors, that allows superintendents and that allows governors and legislatures to say all right, let’s assume our revenue shortfall due to covid over the next year or two will be mitigated, so we don’t have to layoff state employees or raise taxes. That type of certainty is a big plus.”
In Washington, with a Democratic House of Representatives and a likely Republican or essentially tied Senate, the kind of huge relief package Lamont envisions is likely not to occur, Romano predicted.
Biden faces the difficult task of dragging the nation out of a devastating and economic crisis — a recovery that is likely to shape his presidency. The U. S. unemployment remains similar to that of the Great Recession as the nation marches into a winter likely to excerbate and increase coronavirus cases.
Biden’s campaign platform and “Build Back Better” motto foreshadow that the Democrat is likely to pair New Deal- style infrastructure investment with his coronavirus relief strategy to jump the American economy. In addition to transportation, those investments are likely to be linked to his climate agenda — investing in renewable energy and weatherizing federal buildings, among other measures.
“He’s going to really lean heavily on infrastructure,” said Scott McLean, professor of political science at Quinnipiac University. “It can’t just be road repair. It’s going to be much more comprehensive than that. This is an area where he will be able to work with the Republicans and get something done.”
Philip Klinkner, associate professor of government at Hamilton College, warned Republicans in Congress had no interest in passing an infrastructure bill even when Trump was interested in the topic.
If something can pass, such infrastructure investments could mean more federal funding for Connecticut bridges and rail, as well as the state’s investment in wind energy along the coast.
But there’s always the question of how to pay for it all. For Connecticut residents concerned about their tax bill, Kyle Pomerleau, resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute studying federal tax policy, said high income households in the state could see their taxes rise, even if Democrats successfully repeal the 2017 cap on state and local tax deducations now set at $ 10,000.
Pomerleau forecasted that Biden would increase the top rate income tax rate from 37 percent to 39.6 percent, scale back a deduction for business income given to sole proprietorships, partnerships, S corporations and raise the tax rate on capital gains and dividends to 39.6 percent for those earning more than $ 1 million.
With or without the Senate, Biden could roll back Trump’s changes to environmental regulations for vehicle emissions, air and water pollution, drilling, logging and more, Blumenthal said. He could re- enter the country into the Paris Climate Accord and reshape the nation’s diplomatic and trade relationships with countries like China.
To accomplish his big immigration priorities, making the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, or DACA, program permanent and giving a path to citizenship people living in the nation illegally, Biden would need legislation to pass the Congress. But he could make immigration changes through regulation and executive order by changes the enforcement priorities of Immigration and Customs Enforcement, something that could ease pressure on sanctuary cities in Connecticut, McLean said.
“I didn’t worry much when Trump was president and I’m not going to worry when Biden is president,” Lamont said about immigration enforcement in the state. “I feel that Connecticut cherishes its diversity.”
Biden’s entire agenda will face the competing winds of the vocal progressive left in the U. S. House of Representatives and Senate Republicans, McLean said. But he predicted that the results of the 2020 election in the House, the leadership of Speaker Nancy Pelosi, DCalif., in her caucus, and the looming 2022 election for some Senate Republicans will incentivize some early compromise.
“A Republican Senate means we get things done, but most likely small things,” Himes said. “Dreams of major transformative change are unlikely to come true in a Republican Senate, but you know [ Senate Majority Leader] Mitch McConnell and Joe Biden have a decades long relationship and I believe there will be some overlap.”
Klinkner said this election doesn’t change the fundamental aims of the Republican Party.
“McConnell is going to claim that voters ratified a GOP Senate and they want a GOP Senate to keep a check on a Biden administration,” he said. “I think we are looking at two years of pretty serious gridlock.”