Tropical Storm Elsa’s track edges closer to CT
The expected track of Tropical Storm Elsa has changed, potentially impacting Connecticut more significantly than it appeared it would one day ago.
“Basically the models have shifted further north rather dramatically,” said Gary Lessor of the Connecticut Weather Center at Western Connecticut State University. “There are indications that it will have much greater impact.”
As of Wednesday morning, much of the state should expect 1 to 3 inches of rain between 5 a.m. and 2 p.m. Friday.
That’s not to say it will be a dry Thursday. It just won’t be the tropical storm that’s causing it.
“There still will be a frontal boundary to our north,” Lessor said. “It’s very likely there will be some showers and thunderstorms both Thursday and Thursday night, but not in association with Elsa.”
Once the tropical storm does hit, New Haven will be a boundary line, with heavier sustained winds to the north and east.
The New Haven area is expected to experience sustained winds as much as 25 miles per hour, with peak gusts
hitting 50 miles per hour, though Lessor said: “It’s not going to gust that high all the time.”
Further south and west, toward Greenwich and Danbury, will see sustained winds between 10 and 15 miles per hour.
North of New Haven, though, toward New London, will likely get the brunt of the storm
“I kind of drew a line in the sand at New Haven,” Lessor said. “It appears as though anything east of there has a much greater chance for the higher winds.”
It’s “still early in the game,” though, Lessor said. “Weather’s always changing.”
The storm could track further north and, if it does, the impact on much of Connecticut will increase.
“If the storm were to track another 30 miles to the north, New Haven County and Middlesex County could be in for some trouble,” Lessor said.
In Bridgeport, the city’s Emergency Operations Center continues to monitor the storm’s track. Scott Appleby, the city’s director of emergency management and emergency communications, said the current track puts Elsa as a “subtropical storm” on Friday near the coasts of New York and Connecticut. He said as Elsa moves up through the mid-Atlantic region, the area will see heavy rain and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon through Friday morning.
Appleby said the storm is expected to make its closest approach near, or just south of, Long Island Friday morning, keeping most tropical storm-force winds offshore. He said while the storm could change its path at any time, the city is urging residents to take precautions now.
“This is the time to review home and business emergency plans, emergency kits and other plans of action in the event the track changes,” Appleby said. “As always we are keeping a close eye on the storm and are reviewing our internal city’s emergency plans and ensuring we are prepared for any impacts.”
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration track of the tropical storm indicates it is expected to hit the area of eastern Maryland around 2 a.m. Friday. Twelve hours later, the storm will be beyond Connecticut, the current track shows.
NOAA’s current predictions for the storm indicate it could bring wind gusts between about 39 to 73 mph to the area.
Eversource, one of the state’s utility companies, said it is ready for the remnants of the tropical storm to reach Connecticut.
“We are watching the weather forecasts, holding planning meetings, and preparing accordingly — positioning equipment and crews so we’re ready to respond and quickly restore power for our customers,” said Craig Hallstorm, Eversource’s president of regional electric operations. “Our people are ready and will work around the clock, if needed, to restore power as quickly and safely as possible.”
The company said it secured out-of-state line crews in advance of the impending weather later this week. Eversource said tree and line crews and support staff will be stationed across the state to handle and damage or outages.
The utility company said it has customer care representatives at the ready to take calls as needed.