Sorting through some playoff scenarios
With just days remaining in the regular season, we can finally say we have a good idea of where things stand in the high school football playoff picture.
We’re going to simplify this as much as possible for now because there might be some mathematical nuances we’re missing.
Remember, all of this is unofficial until the CIAC Football Committee meets and approves the points the day after all the Thanksgiving week games are completed.
CLASS LL
CLINCHED — Darien (9-0), Fairfield Prep (8-1), New Canaan (8-1), Hall (9-1) and Shelton (8-2)
Darien and Hall have clinched home games. New Canaan and Fairfield Prep can clinch home games with victories.
WIN & IN — West Haven (8-1) The Westies would be in line to get a home game if they knock off Fairfield Prep. New Canaan losing would also help that cause. If West Haven loses they get thrown into the mess of teams below.
WIN & HELP — Southington (7-2), Hamden (7-2), Newtown (6-3), Staples (7-2), Trumbull (7-2), Greenwich (6-3).
These are the teams vying for the final three spots — or two if West Haven beats Prep. If any of these teams lose here, they’re out, but the winner isn’t guaranteed a spot, either, until all the points are accounted for.
We do know Staples plays Greenwich and the loser is out, but Greenwich will need more help than Staples will for simply winning the game. If Trumbull beats St. Joseph, the Eagles will jump to the front of the line and likely get in over the rest.
The rest will be depending on their opponents’ games. West Haven losing to Fairfield Prep will create even more of a bottleneck for the three remaining spots. In short, if you’re one of these schools, win and hope enough around you lose.
We didn’t list Norwalk (6-3) because the Bears need just about everybody to lose about them. If their chances somehow improve before Thursday, we’ll let you know.
CLASS L
CLINCHED — St. Joseph (8-1), Maloney (8-1), Cheney Tech (9-1)
Both teams can get a home game with victories over Trumbull and Platt, respectively, or at least one more of the other contenders losing. Cheney Tech is also in line for a home game if Maloney, Naugatuck or Windsor lose — definitely, if two lose.
WIN & IN — Windsor (8-1), Naugatuck (8-1), Bristol Central (8-1), Thames River (8-1).
Windsor (vs. Middletown) and Naugatuck (vs. Ansonia) would put themselves in great position to get a home game if they with their games. Bristol Central, too, if one of the teams ahead of the Rams lose.
If Windsor, Naugatuck or Bristol Central lose — and Naugatuck hasn’t beaten Ansonia in 10 years — a nightmare scenario exists where any one could miss out if teams below them all win. Thames River, however, has no such wiggle room: It’s just about finished with a loss.
WIN & HELP — Masuk (7-2), Hand (6-3), Fitch (7-2)
Worst case scenario for these teams: There’s only one spot left if Thames River beats Quinebaug Valley.
Masuk has the inside track if it beats Newtown, Hand could potentially catch the Panthers, but an easier path is if Hand wins and Masuk loses. They’ll both get in with wins if Thames River loses. Fitch would need both or one and Thames River to lose to claim the final spot.
CLASS M
CLINCHED — Killingly (8-0), Granby/Canton (7-2), Rockville (7-2)
Killingly has clinched a home game and has just about locked down the top seed. Granby/Canton and Rockville clinch home games with wins.
WIN & IN — Ellington (7-2), Branford (7-2), Avon (6-2), Torrington (6-3) or Watertown (6-3)
Ellington would clinch a home game by beating Rockville and the last home game will be either Branford or Avon depending on bonus points. If one of them loses, the other gets it.
Torrington plays Watertown and the winner gets in.
WIN & HOPE — Plainville (6-3), Gilbert/NW/Housatonic (6-3)
The last spot will likely come down to Plainville with a win over 0-9 Farmington and either a Gilbert loss to Granby/Canton or Avon losing to Lewis Mills. Gilbert will need to win and get Avon to lose.
CLASS S
CLINCHED — Bloomfield (9-0), Ansonia (9-0), Cromwell/Portland (9-0), Holy Cross (7-2), New Fairfield (7-2)
The top three unbeaten teams have also locked in home games. The last one is a tossup between Holy Cross and New Fairfield if they both win.
WIN & IN — Seymour (7-2), Morgan (7-2), Notre Dame-Fairfield (7-2).
It’s pretty simple here: Morgan plays winless OSW and ND-Fairfield winless Pomperaug. If they somehow lose those games, they’re out — perhaps deservedly so.
Seymour is 8-9 all-time vs. Woodland, so it’s no guarantee. A loss and the Cats will be sweating a possible challenge from Sheehan and maybe even Ledyard.
WIN & HELP — Sheehan (6-3), Ledyard (6-3).
Sheehan and Ledyard get faint hope if Seymour loses and they both win, but only getting serious bonus point help will allow them to catch Seymour’s low of 123.0. Tolland and Stafford/Somers/East Windsor just won’t get enough points to challenge any of them.