Inflation in SoCal has been cooling slightly
Yes, Southern California's inflation rate has cooled in the past half year. But it's still a pain in the wallet.
My trusty spreadsheet created a Southern California inflation rate composite, using Consumer price indexes for Los Angeles and Orange counties (through February) and Riverside and San Bernardino counties (through January).
So what cost-of-living increase is tolerable?
Glass half-full
My composite Southern California inflation measurement is up 6.2% in the past year — a significant bite.
But the good news is that local CPI had only a 1.6% increase over the last six months after a 4.5% jump the previous half year. And don't forget that inflation ran 8% for 2021.
What's cooling the cost of living's surge? Ponder these key CPI slices where inflation in the past six months isn't as painful as the previous half year:
GROCERIES >> It's hard to sugarcoat the 8.8% jump of the past year, but it's up only 2.4% in the last six months after a 6.2% surge in the previous half-year. And it rose 7.8% for 2021.
APPAREL >> The rush to buy for back-to-school and the office ended. Yes, clothing's up 6.2% in the past year but only 0.8% in the last six months after 5.3% in the previous half year and 5.9% for 2021.
RECREATION >> There was modest cooling in the cost of fun, which was up 6.2% past year, 2.5% last six months and 3.5% in the previous half year — versus 5.9% for 2021.
EDUCATION/COMMUNICATION >> Thank ongoing price wars among cellphone providers. Up 2.9% past year — but only 0.1% last six months after rising 2.8% the previous half year and 0.9% for 2021.
NEW VEHICLES >> Factories finally delivered enough cars so price hikes could chill. Up 2.3% past year — only 0.9% last six months after 1.4% in the previous half year — versus 10.6% for 2021.
GASOLINE >> Prices are down, yes, sliding 2.7% over a year. That's a 19% drop in the last six months, reversing the 20% gain in the previous half-year. Pump prices rose 38% for 2021.
USED CARS >> What a turnabout as dealers finally got new cars on their lots! Inflation is down 11% in the past year, including a 13% plunge in the last six months. That followed a 2.4% jump in the previous half-year after 39% gains for 2021. DURABLES >> Big-ticket items such as appliances and furniture are back in stock, just as people don't need more. So prices are down 1.7% in the past year and off 3.3% in the last six months. That compares with 1.6% gains in the previous half-year and 13.1% for 2021. Glass half-empty There's still some bad news out there.
NATURAL GAS >> You got the bill, so you know the story. CPI says this fuel's up 86% in a year and 63% in the last six months after 20% previous half-year after 25% for 2021.
HOUSING >> There's a cooling market for rents that should impact this CPI slice soon as landlords begin to compete for tenants. It's up 7.9% in the past year — 4.8% in the last six months after 2.9% in the previous halfyear — versus 6.6% for 2021.
SERVICES >> Worker shortages mean labor-intensive work remains pricey. The cost of getting somebody to do something jumped 8% past year including 4.3% in the last six months. That's after a 3.5% gain in the previous half-year and 6% for 2021. MEDICAL CARE >> This is the same old story: a constant rise. Up 4.9% past year after 4.8% for 2021.
Bottom line
Inflation may have cooled locally but it's still too hot for the household checkbook of most Southern California families.
And it's a similar cost-of-living pattern nationwide. A 6% jump in the past year came from 2.1% gains over the past last six months after a 3.8% surge in the previous half-year. And, remember, inflation rose 8% in the 12 months ending in February 2022.
It makes for tough choices for U.S. shoppers as well as the inflation fight of the Federal Reserve.