Props 15, 16 both ‘in trouble’
Voters not backing race-based affirmative action, lukewarm over 'split-roll' property tax
In a daunting sign for two of California’s highprofile ballot propositions, voters appear unwilling to bring race-based affirmative action back to the Golden State and are only supporting an overhaul of how the state taxes commercial property by the slimmest of margins.
Those are among the key findings of a new statewide survey conducted this month by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) ahead of the Nov. 3 election, which provides a snapshot of how residents feel about everything from the presidential race — no surprise here, Democrat Joe Biden still has a commanding lead — to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.
Just seven weeks before the election, the results are telling for backers of propositions 15 and 16, analysts say.
“They’re both in trouble,” said Larry Gerston, a political science professor emeritus at San Jose State University. “There’s sort of an unwritten rule about ballot measures, and the thinking is that most of the time at least, you’ve got to be up about 10 points” early on, since support tends to wane as Election Day approaches.
Instead, Proposition 16 is down by double digits, surprising many observers amid growing calls for racial justice. The measure would do away with 1996’s Proposition 209, which banned affirmative action, meaning universities and public agencies would once again be able to consider race in government contracts and when deciding whom to admit or hire.
Yet despite high-profile support from Gov. Gavin Newsom, the Golden State Warriors, the San Francisco Giants, just 31% of likely voters say they approve of Proposition 16, while 47% oppose it and 22% say they are undecided. Just 9% of Republicans support the proposal, a figure that rises only to 46% among Democrats. There is no region in the state where a majority of likely voters support the idea, and the Bay Area and Los Angeles are the only two regions in the state with more than one-third support.
“People aren’t making a connection between the racial justice issues that have certainly surfaced in the last few months and this particular ballot measure,” said PPIC president Mark Baldassare. “To me that says a lot of people don’t know what it is. The proponents probably need to provide a bit of a history lesson around Prop 209.”
Proposition 16 was placed on the ballot by state lawmakers and is endorsed by the heads of all three public higher education systems — UC, CSU and community college. But it is opposed by Ward Connerly, a Republican businessman and former UC regent who helped usher Proposition 209 to victory with 55% of the vote more than two decades ago, and some Asian American groups who fear they will suffer the consequences and lose seats at the state’s best schools.
Proposition 16 backers thought they might benefit from recent nationwide protests calling for an end to systemic racism. While the poll found that six in 10 Californians agree race relations in the U.S. has gotten worse in the last year, up 14 points from January 2019, residents don’t feel strongly about repealing a ban on affirmative action.
“I’m surprised by that,” Gerston said. “The state has
turned so much on that issue in 30 years … and the demography of the state is considerably different today, so I’m scratching my head.”
The poll found just 41 percent of non-White voters said they supported Proposition 16. Among White voters, only 26 percent said they were in favor.
Despite its slim support, experts say Proposition 15 also appears to be in trouble. The measure would upend one of the pillars of California’s 1970s tax revolt as schools and local and state governments are desperate for revenue lost in the coronavirus shutdowns.
It would use current market value — not purchase price — to determine how much owners of commercial and industrial property owe in taxes, creating a split roll tax, because the way residential property is taxed wouldn’t change. That would considerably boost the taxes on non-residential property, with the extra money going toward local governments and schools.
According to the poll, 51% of likely voters — including 72% of Democrats — support the idea, while 40% oppose it. Support is strongest in the Bay Area, where the cost of living is sky high and 62% of likely voters back the change, followed by Los Angeles. Fewer than half of likely voters in the more conservative Central Valley and the Orange County/San Diego area favor the proposition.
More secure and predictable is support for Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, with 60% of likely voters saying they would back the former vice president. Just 31% of likely voters want to see President Donald Trump reelected, down two percentage points from PPIC’s May survey.