The biggest reason for SF’s downturn is painfully obvious
A few oh-so-distant weeks ago, the 49ers were the preseason favorites — the prohibitive favorites, in fact — to win the NFC West, at a consensus line of plus-115.
Now?
Well, as you can imagine, things have changed. The 2-3 49ers are as long as plus-1500, per Oddschecker, putting their implied chance of winning the division at roughly 6 percent.
It’s an incredible fall from grace that even the most ardent pessimist didn’t see coming, even in the toughest division in football.
Losing can be complicated, but I don’t think that’s the case here.
Yes, injuries will be rightly blamed for San Francisco’s underwhelming 2020 to date, but I think there’s a more pressing issue for the Niners.
If you’ve been reading me these last few weeks, you can probably guess where this is going.
The 49ers went from having arguably the second-best quarterback in the division to now having unquestionably the worst, with the gap between last place and the rest of the field not looking particularly close.
Yes, Nick Bosa being out for the year matters. Yes, the never-ending injury list of week-byweek knocks is a factor. But in the NFL in 2020 (and well before that, if we’re being honest) you can survive what the 49ers have been asked to survive if you have the right guy under center.
The Niners — whether it is Nick Mullens or C.J. Beathard or Jimmy Garoppolo — are yet to have that guy this season and at the moment, the outlook isn’t looking great for a turnaround.
What makes it funny — or tragic, depending on how seriously you take all of this — is that I don’t know if the new favorites in the West, the Seattle Seahawks, are, in fact, an excellent team. What I do know is that they have the best quarterback in the game right now in Russell Wilson.
Don’t get me wrong, there are some good players around Wilson on offense and the Seattle secondary is worthy of note, but the Seahawks are hardly some 53-man juggernaut.
They just have The Dude — the man who has been the best QB in the NFC West for years now. And because that guy has taken his game to a new level this season, Seattle is 5-0.
The Arizona Cardinals are the proto-Seahawks. Kyler Murray hasn’t quite figured it all out yet, but he flashes such brilliance that you can’t help but forecast a future where his play is always bright. And while Arizona’s roster — on the whole — was the worst in the division coming into the season, it’s that play from Murray and some surprising year-over-year improvements have the Cards at 3-2. They might make a run at a wild-card spot.
You could have argued that last year in his rookie season, Murray was just as good as Garoppolo. That was mere extrapolation, though — an appeal to that bright future. Don’t get me wrong, it was close, but so far this year, it is not. Murray has progressed. Garoppolo has regressed.
But no one has progressed more than Rams quarterback Jared Goff.
There was never any doubt that the former No. 1 overall pick had the physical skill set to succeed at the NFL level, but his first three years at the helm of Sean McVay’s offensive have been a roller coaster. In Year 1, he made the Pro Bowl. Then he was an adequate enough game-manager that the Rams went to the Super Bowl. But last year, the game around Goff deteriorated (specifically Todd Gurley’s knee) and the Rams took a big step back (though not as big a step as you might remember, since they were 9-7). This year, though, the offense is humming again, in no small part because Goff has seemingly taken a step forward.
As Niners fans will see on Sunday, the Cal product is slinging it for LA this season. His high-end arm in a Shanahan-based play-action system is making beautiful music. It’s to the point where I feel the need to retract any slander I might have thrown his way during the lean times. The truth is I always believed in him...
Last year Goff was the worst quarterback in the division. Now he and Murray are battling for the second spot. I think Goff has the lead, at the moment.
And in last place is Garoppolo and the other Niners’ QBs.
I don’t need to explain how poorly they have played, right?
San Francisco’s roster took a step back from its juggernaut status in 2019. That was inevitable given how the NFL salary cap structure creates parity. Injuries have turned that into a fall. The Niners have a middle-of-theroad roster — at best — at the moment.
Meanwhile, they’re also getting bottom-of-the-barrel (and bottom of the division) quarterback play.
It’s a formula that simply cannot sustain moving forward. Not if San Francisco wants to sniff the playoffs.
And not if Garoppolo wants to be a starting quarterback in this league next year.