Has state’s case surge reached its peak?

With new vaccine rollout, hopes grow that worst of pandemic is in the past

The wave of coronavirus outbreaks that swept California and the rest of the country the last two months, filling hospitals and morgues and prompting new rounds of government restrictions, appears to have crested, scientists say — a hopeful sign the worst of the pandemic may be past.

As new cases reported by county health departments level off, scientists at the University of Washington who have maintained one of the most widely used and respected computer models for tracking and projecting outbreaks, say new infections peaked over the past week in the U.S. and large states, including California, which has now seen more than 3 million cases.

“Good news — we’re heading in the right direction,” said Ali Mokdad, professor at the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, which developed the model. “The worst is behind us.”

It’s tough to know if Yolo County’s surge in cases has also crested. Data wasn’t available Monday night due to the Martin Luther King holiday. However, on Sunday night — the last time data was posted to the county’s website — there were 10,087 cases, which was 196 more than previously reported. And that number was also “off” because data hadn’t been updated for Saturday. However, one critical factor in the county numbers is that there were no ICU beds available. In addition, the number of deaths attributed to the virus has remained at 131 for several days now.

More details will probably be available after the days and data catch up to one another.

Mokdad, meanwhile, cautioned that the ray of hope from new infections subsiding assumes that the public will continue following basic precautions such as social distancing, avoiding gatherings and wearing masks, and that officials don’t ease restrictions too soon. It also assumes that the government will improve on its disorganized and inefficient vaccine rollout and that new virus strains don’t make it less effective.

California health officials aren’t quite ready to declare the winter surge over.

“It is difficult to make projections because so many factors can influence the trajectory of the pandemic, including public implementation of mitigation measures and the emergence of new strains,” the California Department of Public Health said in a statement Monday.

The state health department said it “will continue to monitor the data closely” but noted that hospitals “are still stretched with large proportions of COVID-19 patients so we cannot let our guard down,” and added that “it remains essential that Californians continue to follow state and local public health guidelines.”

But infectious disease experts agreed that case data appear to show that the worst of the winter surge, with Christmas and New Year’s holiday spikes smaller than the outbreaks after Thanksgiving, has passed.

Data from county health departments compiled by this news organization shows the number of new confirmed cases peaking Dec. 22 at 45,388, with peaks of nearly as many cases Jan. 10 and 14. The proportion of positive test results peaked Jan. 7 but was nearly eclipsed again Jan. 11. Hospitalizations have been trending downward after peaking Jan. 5, and fatalities since Jan. 14. The worst of the state’s outbreaks have been in the Los Angeles area.

“I read those tea leaves as indicating we’re starting to decline,” said Dr. George Rutherford, an epidemiologist at the University of California-San

Francisco.

Dr. John Swartzberg, professor emeritus of infectious diseases and vaccinology at the University of California-Berkeley, came to a similar conclusion.

“The data from last week really gives one a sense that things are leveling off,” Swartzberg said, adding that while daily new cases remain troublingly high and “we’re not nearly out of the woods, just the fact that it’s not getting worse feels like a victory.”

Nationally, the University of Washington model indicates that the number of estimated new daily infections across the United States — a figure that includes people who were not tested — peaked Saturday at 672,160 and now sits at 620,243. The U.S. has a total 24 million cases and nearly 400,000 deaths from COVID-19.

In California, the model shows they peaked Sunday at 127,044 and now sit at 123,827. Among other large coastal states, New York topped out Saturday at 31,119 estimated new daily infections, Florida also was projected to have hit a peak Sunday of 28,866 and Texas last Tuesday at 63,958.

That tracks with data reported by various organizations tracking the pandemic.

In summarizing their latest projections, the University of Washington scientists said U.S. and California deaths from COVID-19, which lag behind new infections by several weeks, should peak in early February, and total 567,000 nationally and 71,000 in California by May 1.

Whether the cases continue their downward trend or suffer another surge depends on a number of factors. Mokdad attributed the “roller coaster” of past case spikes to the willingness of people to continue observing safety guidelines and governments to re-impose restrictions if needed.

“What has been happening is when they see cases going up, they start behaving and doing the right things,” Mokdad said. “We’ve seen it everywhere.”

Warming weather is expected to help this spring as it did last year, allowing people to spend more time outdoors where the virus doesn’t spread as easily.

But two new factors now in play can alter the trajectory upwards or downwards. The growing availability of effective vaccines is expected to “make it harder for the virus to find a new home,” Swartzberg said.

But the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention expects a mutated virus strain that spreads more easily and has been found in California and other states will become the dominant U.S. strain in March.

“That will push things up, vaccination will push things down,” Rutherford said. “We might have a fourth wave — it’s really too soon to tell.”

And it’s possible a new virus strain could make the vaccine less effective, Swartzberg said, though there is no evidence of that in variants seen so far.

“Clearly that’s something have to keep our eye on,” Swartzberg said, but he expects things to improve through the spring. “We may have reached the nadir.”