Organic produce marketers assess prospects for 2021

Following a roller coaster year of the pandemic, leading California organic fruit and vegetable growers say they’re generally bullish on market prospects as they look toward 2021 and beyond.

But while the leaders of large grower-shippers such as Driscoll’s, Taylor Farms-Earthbound Farms and JV Smith expressed confidence demand will increase in 2021, they remain uncertain where people will buy their organic produce — which affects which mix of varieties they should plant.

“The consumers are clear: They want organic as part of a healthy lifestyle,” said Soren Bjorn, president of Driscoll’s of the Americas. “In the berries, organic is growing way faster than conventional, three or four times faster.”

Organic vegetable production also continues to grow at a healthy pace, as large-scale farmers have brought the products within the means of middle-income shoppers.

But there is lingering uncertainty about the share of organic fruits and vegetables people will buy from retailers, food service and the deli during the recovery.

“The food service segment consumes a lot of head lettuce, but they don’t consume much organic spinach and salad mix,” said Bruce Taylor, president of Taylor Farms. “We had about a $70 million pile of vegetables to work through in about a 10-week period. That was a huge challenge. Even today, the challenge is: What do I plant?”

Taylor, Bjorn and JV Smith President Vic Smith gave their analyses of the prospects for organics during an online Organic Grower Summit Roundtable sponsored by the Organic Produce Network, a meeting place of large produce retailers and the organic farmers who are large enough to supply them.

All the growers said they had to adapt to the major disruptions in supply chains that came as people bought far less produce at restaurants and delis, and more at retail supermarkets.

“With the produce industry, and especially the leafy greens we focus on, there was extreme anxiety for 30 to 60 days, and then it seemed to level out,” Smith said. “There was a shift from food service over to retail, and after that it seemed to settle down.”

The effects of these dramatic market shifts during the pandemic continue and could be even longer lasting in strawberries, where farmers must make planting decisions far in advance.