What’s behind the big drop in COVID cases

Are we nearing the end of the pandemic?

We could be, based on the science and local reports.

In a guest opinion published recently in the Wall Street Journal, Dr. Marty Makary, a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and Bloomberg School of Public Health, said that herd immunity is starting to occur in the United States. Makary noted that overall COVID-19 cases are down a startling 77% over the past six weeks, in large part because of natural immunity due to prior infection. Using testing numbers and mathematical models, Makary said that 55% of Americans now have natural immunity.

Add to that the numbers of people getting vaccinated, which as of last week was 15% of Americans, with that number starting to quickly expand. Estimates are that 250 million doses will have been delivered to approximately 150 million people in this country by the end of March.

Makary’s conclusion: “There is reason to think the country is racing toward an extremely low level of infection. As more people have been infected, most of whom have mild or no symptoms, there are fewer Americans left to be infected. At the current trajectory, I expect COVID will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life.”

And there’s even more good news on the vaccine front, even after a temporary, weather-related, supply shortfall last week.

The COVID-19 vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNTech generates robust immunity after one dose and can be stored in ordinary freezers instead of at ultracold temperatures, according to reports Friday from the companies and researchers.

Overall, the delivery of vaccine doses is on the verge of accelerating rapidly, according to news reports, with Moderna and Pfizer promising to deliver at least 3 million shots per day and up to about 3.3 million per day starting in April. Johnson & Johnson, meanwhile, is likely to add to that total once the company is given the federal go ahead to distribute its vaccine.

In Yolo County, a Wednesday update shows that there were 12,599 people who tested positive for the coronavirus compared to the 12,569 people who tested positive on Feb. 23. The county’s death toll stands at 185 since the pandemic struck in March 2020, which is unchanged from a day earlier. There have now been 12,107 people who have recovered and 96,623 people tested. There are 12 people hospitalized and one ICU bed available in the county.

In Woodland, there were 5,284 cases on Wednesday, compared to 5,271 cases on Feb. 23, There have also been 94 deaths, which is unchanged from a day earlier The county’s positivity rating stands at 1.5%.

Due to a decline in coronavirus case numbers, Yolo County moved into the red tier on Wednesday, signaling a shift in health and safety restrictions.

Using testing numbers and mathematical models, Makary said that 55% of Americans now have natural immunity.

In the less restrictive tier, restaurants and movie theaters will be allowed to operate indoors at 25% capacity, or 100 people — whichever is lower. Gyms can operate indoors at 10% capacity, and museums, zoos and aquariums can operate indoors at 25% capacity. Retail stores can increase their capacity from 25% to 50%.

Does this mean we can let our collective face guards down?

No. Clearly not.

While the state numbers are dropping, California still had 3,421,720 confirmed cases on Thursday up 0.2% from previous day, and 47,924 deaths (an increase of 0.9% from the day before).

What all this means is that we’ll be wearing masks for an indeterminate future and still practicing social distancing.

In the interim, vaccine alarmism needs to be rejected, and as the supply ramps up, as many people as possible need to be vaccinated. Too many people continue to reject getting vaccine shots, which will delay the date when public health officials will say it’s safe to return to much of what we now remember as “normal” everyday life.

Yes, that means fear receding, schools reopening, businesses welcoming back customers and employment numbers rising.

Keeping in mind, there’s significant light on the horizon.