The politics of an earlier or later recall

Some Democratic officials want to move up the date of Gov. Gavin Newsom’s recall election. Would it matter? Probably not. Newsom’s strengths, weaknesses and risks will be in play regardless of whether the recall comes at the end of summer or toward the end of fall.

Last week, California’s Department of Finance issued early estimates of the expected cost to counties of holding the recall election.

The estimate currently stands about $215 million.

In response, Democratic Senate leader Toni Atkins of San Diego and Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon of Lakewood issued a statement announcing the state would cover the cost.

“This funding will allow for an earlier recall election,” the statement read.

Among the most prominent early supporters of moving up the recall election date is Sen. Steve Glazer, D-Orinda, who argued an early recall provides the “best opportunity” to defeat the effort.

“He has rebounded well with vaccines and budget,” Glazer argued on Twitter last month. “His biggest threats are the unknowns: virus variant, fires, school reopening. No reason to delay and give opposition any more running room.”

Glazer more or less covered the biggest risks for Newsom, though we would add to that the risk of rolling blackouts during the height of summer and possibly the impact of drought-related policy changes.

Currently, the prospects of the recall aren’t especially strong.

Polling over the last few months by the Public Policy Institute of California and the Institute of Governmental Studies out of the University of California, Berkeley have indicated support for the recall has remained stuck between 36% and 40% since January.

Both have also generally found that around half or more of Californians approve of the job Newsom is doing as governor. In contrast, Gov. Gray Davis saw his approval ratings plunge to as low as 24% amid his various crises.

At least at this point, it’s clear that something significant needs to change for the recall to prevail. Either the recall campaign needs to sharpen its messaging or Newsom needs to experience a string of blunders that exceed his blunders to date, or both.

Since this is Newsom we’re talking about, this is possible, though the governor has an early, strong advantage.

Perhaps moving up the election would aid Newsom, since that minimizes the time period for things to go badly or for him to blunder. But if any major problem or set of problems emerge over the summer, particularly with respect to drought, fires and water, that could backfire.

Perhaps a longer campaign could benefit the recall effort, in that gives recall supporters more time to make their case. On the other hand, if the recall can’t gain much traction, that would just make for a protracted defeat for recall backers and by extension the California GOP.

Either way, the key question will be whether Gov. Gavin Newsom merits being removed from office before the completion of his term.