Close is no win for the Democrats
The eyes of the nation were on the special election in Georgia’s Sixth Congressional District this week. And, once the dust settled, Democratic leaders tried to spin it as a mix of good news and bad news.
The good news, according to Rep. Ben Ray Lujan, D-New Mexico, chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, is that Jon Ossoff came so close. “Despite the loss, we have a lot to be proud of,” Lujan said. Which is kind of like the proverbial “Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you like the play?”
The fact is: Georgia 6 has been in Republican hands since 1979. In 2012, Mitt Romney won the district by more than 23 points. Tom Price, who abandoned the seat to become Donald Trump’s HHS secretary, never got less than 60 percent. Even though Trump only carried the district last November by 1.5 points, it’s still a red district in a red state. So it is impressive that any Democrat proved so competitive, losing by only four points.
But: So what? Politics isn’t beanbag. In politics, close doesn’t mean anything. There’s only winning and losing. And winning is the only thing that counts. Jon Ossoff lost, even though he raised $23 million, more than any other congressional candidate in history, and outspent his Republican opponent. Jon Ossoff lost, even though this was billed as the race that would catapult Democrats back into control of Congress in 2018.
Yes, the bad news is that Jon Ossoff lost. And Democrats have to stop spinning about how well he did, all things considered, and start dealing with the reality of not only why he lost but why, in the four special elections held so far in 2017, Democrats have a record of 0-4.
Why did Democrats lose in Georgia 6? Two factors, above all others: Wrong candidate and wrong message. Jon Ossoff, former congressional staffer and documentary filmmaker, may be a bright young man, but he bombed as a candidate: too stiff, too cold, too reserved. He’s hardly the kind of guy you’d want to go out and have a beer with. He’s more like the nerd you’d do anything to avoid. He has all the charisma of a banana slug.
But Ossoff also had the wrong message. Not necessarily a bad message. He didn’t say anything offensive. Just the wrong message. He didn’t say anything particularly inspiring, either. He didn’t focus on Donald Trump. He didn’t adopt the progressive platform of Bernie Sanders. He just cast himself as the policy wonk who would do good things for his district — when the public clearly wanted more.
According to leading political strategist Stanley Greenberg, Ossoff and his team made one other fatal mistake. They were so determined to keep the race based on “local” issues that they failed to respond when Republicans raised the stakes by painting Ossoff as an acolyte of House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and her “liberal San Francisco values.” It’s a tired, old, phony line of attack, but it still works in some parts of the country, especially if you don’t respond.
Once Republicans had so “nationalized” the race, Greenberg told me, Ossoff had no alternative but to also talk about the national importance of Georgia 6. He could have done so by focusing on the Republican health care bill, which would take health protection away from 23 million Americans — and be the first vote cast by whoever won the Georgia special. But he chose not to. He stayed local, instead, and lost.
The Democrats’ loss in Georgia 6 is all the more ironic when compared to what happened in South Carolina 5. In Georgia, Jon Ossoff received $6 million from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) and a ton of national publicity. In South Carolina, Democrat Archie Parnell received only $275,000 from the DCCC and zero national publicity.
Yet, when the votes were counted, Parnell scored better than Ossoff. He lost by only 2,836 votes, which says something about where the national Democratic Party is today. The more establishment party leaders love you, the worse voters like you — and the less likely they are to vote for you.
It doesn’t mean Democrats have less chance of taking back control of the House. According to strategist Charlie Cook, there are 71 districts now held by Republicans that are more favorable to Democrats than Georgia 6. But it does underscore where Democrats have to start in order to win back the House in 2018: find and field better candidates — starting with a candidate who lives in the district, which Jon Ossoff did not.
Bill Press is syndicated by Tribune Content Agency. His email address is: bill@ billpress.com.