The Future of Time Warner

If AT&T’s $85 billion takeover bid for Time Warner dies, what happens to the owner of HBO, CNN and the Warner Bros. studio?

To be clear, nobody knows how the courts will rule on the Justice Department’s lawsuit to block the deal. The government warns the deal could hike television bills and hamper innovation. Many experts and Wall Street analysts believe the government will have a tough time proving its case. Either way, a decision won’t come for months. Appeals could drag out the dispute longer.

If AT&T loses and the deal is scrapped, Time Warner could try to find another buyer. Media companies have been interested in bulking up – see the recent reported interest from Disney, Comcast and Verizon in the movie and television empire 21st Century Fox.

But some analysts say it’s tough right now to imagine any entertainment company stepping in. It’s not clear what would win government approval.

Tech companies like Amazon and Apple are investing in entertainment. But BTIG analyst Rich Greenfield says they likely wouldn’t buy Time Warner either, as they would prefer to build their own businesses.

If Time Warner has to go it alone, its stock would trade at $77, Barclays analysts say. That’s down roughly 17 percent from its current level – and close to where the stock traded before the deal was announced in October 2016.