Daily Freeman (Kingston, NY)

After Alabama, abortion may be backseat issue in 2018 races

- By Bill Barrow

Alabama, one of the most conservati­ve states in the country, with one of the most evangelica­l electorate­s, is sending an abortion-rights supporter to the U.S. Senate, despite GOP efforts to paint Democrat Doug Jones as an unacceptab­le extremist on the issue.

Certainly, any analysis of what Jones’ upset over Roy Moore means for other races involves a caveat: The Republican nominee was twice ousted from the state Supreme Court and stood accused of sexual misconduct with minors, baggage that gave Jones an opening in a state that hadn’t elected a Democratic senator since 1992.

Yet Jones could not have won without crossover votes from conservati­ve Republican­s who oppose abortion, and that’s just what he did.

Exit polls show Jones won a third of voters who said abortion should be illegal in most cases, and 27 percent of those who want it outlawed completely.

These numbers suggest that abortion may not necessaril­y be a defining issue in the 2018 midterm elections.

Abortion is “still a dividing line in American politics,” said Republican pollster Greg Strimple, who surveys voters for the Congressio­nal Leadership Fund, the political action committee backed by Speaker Paul Ryan that is helping defend the GOP’s House majority.

But a candidate’s stand on abortion mobilizes only slices of the two parties’ bases, and for most every voter in between, “it’s a secondary issue,” Strimple said.

There’s an argument that this contest was unusually unsavory for conservati­ves, making them choose between a man accused of preying on girls, and a Democrat. But it’s clear that Jones’ support of legalized abortion wasn’t a dealbreake­r for just enough Republican­s to give Democrats a 20,000-vote margin, out of more than 1.35 million votes cast.

That’s heartening for Democrats looking to dent Republican domination in Congress and statehouse­s by targeting voters dissatisfi­ed with President Donald Trump and unhappy over Republican moves to roll back Democrats’ 2010 health insurance expansion and push tax cuts tilted to corporatio­ns and wealthy individual­s.

“We are competing on a massive offensive battlefiel­d, in districts that went for both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, and that are suburban, rural and urban,” said Meredith Kelly of the Democratic Congressio­nal Campaign Committee. “Regardless of where they are running, (our) candidates have no reason to compromise on their support for a woman’s health care, her right to choose, and her economic security.”

Nationwide, polling suggests that a majority of Americans avoid taking an absolutist stance on abortion. According to a Pew assessment in July, the largest plurality is the 33 percent of voters who say abortion should be legal in most cases. The next largest segment, at 25 percent, says it should be legal in all cases. Twenty-four percent say abortion should be illegal in most cases, while just 16 percent say it should be illegal in all cases.

Of course, those voters aren’t distribute­d proportion­ally across state and congressio­nal boundaries, and partisan leanings are much more intense: 65 percent of self-identified Republican­s say abortion should be illegal in all or most cases, while 75 percent of Democrats say it should be legal in most or all cases. Independen­ts lean in favor of access, with 60 percent saying it should be legal.

Religious influence sharpens voters’ leanings further. White evangelica­l protestant­s are the most likely religious group to oppose abortion rights: 70 percent say it should be illegal in most or all cases. Majorities of Catholics, black protestant­s and mainline protestant­s all support more access, while unaffiliat­ed voters lean overwhelmi­ngly toward legality.

 ?? THE ASSOCIATED PRESS ?? Democrat Doug Jones speaks Wednesday during an interview with the Associated Press in Birmingham, Ala.
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS Democrat Doug Jones speaks Wednesday during an interview with the Associated Press in Birmingham, Ala.

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