Trump’s imaginary ‘red wave’

A strange thing happened to Donald Trump. For a couple of days, he actually forgot about Mueller’s “witch hunt.”

A strange thing happened to Donald Trump’s tweets this week. For a couple of days, he actually forgot about Robert Mueller’s “witch hunt” and turned his attention, instead, to Tuesday’s election results in a downright giddy tweet storm. “RED WAVE!” he crowed, while predicting more to come: “If I find the time, in between China, Iran, the economy and much more, which I must, we will have a giant Red Wave!” Even before the votes were counted, he took credit for a Republican win in Ohio’s 12th congressional district — although, as of this writing, neither Republican Troy Balderson nor Democrat Danny O’Connor has been declared the winner.

Then, Trump tweeted out a cryptic “5 for 5,” which even White House aides, scratching their heads, at first could not explain. Did it mean he could remember the names of all five of his kids? Was he counting Michael Flynn, Paul Manafort, Rick Gates, George Papadopoulos and Chris Collins: five close associates charged with crimes? Press aides later told reporters Trump was referencing five candidates he’d endorsed, even though the outcome of two of those races was still uncertain.

We know it’s too much to ask, but if only Donald Trump had checked the facts before tweeting, he might not have felt so giddy. No, Tuesday’s election results were not as bad as many Republicans had feared. But they weren’t that good, either.

Let’s start with the special election in Ohio 12. This ruby red district should have been a lay-up for Republicans. They’d held it for some 30 years. Donald Trump carried the district in 2016 by 11 points. Pat Tiberi, then-incumbent Republican congressman, won it by 36 points. Yet this week, after pumping in more than $5 million on negative ads, tying Democrat O’Connor to Nancy Pelosi (even though he’d pledged not to support her for speaker) and staging a lastminute rally with President Trump, the best Republicans could rack up, in the early vote totals, was a whisker-thin margin of 1,754 votes (which, again, could disappear, once provisional and absentee ballots are counted).

In other words, in just two years, that “safe” Republican district shrank from a plus36 GOP margin to a 0.09 GOP margin: mainly, according to exit polls, because Republican suburban women could no longer support the party of Trump. And don’t forget: this was a special election for three months only. The same two candidates will face off in November.

No matter which one is declared the actual winner, the outcome of Ohio 12 has already sent shock waves throughout the Republican Party nationwide. Here’s why. Consider the PVI, or “partisan voter index” — how strongly a congressional district leans toward the Democratic Party or the Republican Party. According to the Cook Report, in every special election since Donald Trump took office, Democrats have outperformed in PVI by an average 8.5 points — almost double what they need (an average 4 to 5 points) to win back the House.

Now apply that to November. Again, according to Cook, there are 68 seats now held by Republicans that have a PVI that’s less Republican than Ohio 12 (R+7). And 119 GOP-held seats less Republican than Pennsylvania 18 (R+11), which Democrats won with Conor Lamb in March. Democrats need to win only 23 of those 119 districts to regain control of the House.

That does not guarantee a blue wave, but it certainly sets the scene for one. As Florida’s Republican Congressman Carlos Curbelo summed it up: “Every white, suburban district in the country will be a swing district in November, that’s the take-away” from Tuesday’s vote. That’s bad news for Republicans.

Democrats had other reasons to cheer. After primaries in Kansas and Michigan, there are now eight female Democratic nominees for governor in November: Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan), Laura Kelly (Kansas), Paulette Jordan (Idaho), Kate Brown (Oregon), Lupe Valdez (Texas), Stacey Abrams (Georgia), Michelle Lujan Grisham (New Mexico) and Janet Mills (Maine). Also in Michigan, with no opposition in the general, Democrat Rashida Tlaib will be the first Muslim woman ever to serve in Congress. And, in Missouri, unions flexed their muscle to strike down the anti-union, “right-towork” law enacted last year by a Republican legislature and governor.

So let Donald Trump tweet all he wants about a so-called “red wave.” He’s kidding nobody but himself. At every political level in 2018, the energy, the excitement and the momentum is clearly on the Democratic side. In fact, assessing the overall impact of Tuesday’s vote, Republicans had an “okay” week. Democrats had a great week.