Press: Remember when you vote in November
As a young legislative staffer in Sacramento, one of the first lessons I learned was: “Don’t get mad, get even.”
As a young legislative staffer in Sacramento, one of the first lessons in politics I learned was: “Don’t get mad, get even.” It seemed like such profound wisdom at the time. But now I realize it’s so 20th century.
Today, the stakes are much higher and the time’s even shorter. For our day the much wiser course of action is to do both: “Get mad and then get even,” especially after the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court.
Yes, most Americans, and all Democrats, are pissed off at the nomination of such an extreme right-winger and accused sexual predator to the court, the ugly partisan food fight staged by Senate Republicans, the Trumpian fashion in which they dissed Dr. Christine Blasey Ford and the sham FBI investigation. But the answer is not to sit and sulk. The answer is to stand up, speak out, fight back and get to work like never before. Get mad and get even.
And we have an excellent opportunity to do so, in this year’s midterm elections. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., summed it up best: “I have a 30-day plan. Take back the Senate. Take back the House. Vote Democrat, up and down, and revert power to the people where it belongs.”
It’s worth fighting for, and not just because anti-Trumpers have an excellent chance of winning big on Nov. 6, especially in the House. You know the math. Democrats need to add 23 seats to take back control of the House: a tall order, but not impossible, given the historical record. The average loss for the party whose president has less than 50 percent approval is 36 seats. Republicans won 63 seats in 2010, when Obama’s approval rating was 45 percent. Trump’s approval rating today is 41 percent.
Not only that, according to Politico, there are 209 congressional races that are “firmly Democrat or leaning Democrat.” Democrats need a total of 218. In addition, there are 68 Republican seats “in play,” with only six seats now held by Democrats in jeopardy. In other words, Democrats would really have to mess this election up (which they’re quite capable of doing) NOT to win back the House. In House races nationwide, the latest Morning Consult poll gives Democrats a 10-point advantage, 48 to 38, over Republicans.
The Senate’s a tougher call, but again not impossible. With the Senate now split at 51 Republicans, 47 Democrats and two Independents who caucus with Democrats, picking up just two seats will flip the Senate to Democratic control. For Democrats, that means holding on to five red states carried by Trump — West Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, Montana and North Dakota — and picking up two more. Four out of five of those red states look solid today, North Dakota being the exception. And possible pick-up states now count not only Nevada and Arizona, but also Tennessee and Texas.
Chances are also excellent for Democrats to win back key governorships now in Republican hands. According to Governing magazine, Democrats hold clear leads for governor in Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin — with Iowa, Kansas and Ohio rated toss-ups.
There’s one other major factor. Historically, turnout in midterms is made up principally of older white men, unfavorable to Democrats. But not in 2018. This year, women dominate. There are more women candidates running than ever before and more women turning out to vote. And, no matter what Donald Trump claims, after the Kavanaugh debacle, they’re not rushing out to vote Republican.
In fact, it’s just the opposite. In its survey of 69 battleground House races, the Washington Post found that college-educated suburban white women, considered the critical demographic in this year’s midterms, favor Democrats over Republicans by a stunning 62 percent to 35 percent. In CNN’s latest poll, women across the board tilt Democrat, 58 to 33.
Those margins no doubt have increased after the Kavanaugh debacle. No matter what Donald Trump says, American women are not going to turn out and vote to thank Republicans for putting two more votes against Roe v. Wade on the Supreme Court. As protesters chanted outside the Capitol recently, “Remember in November.”
Bottom line: There’s a good chance for a Blue Wave on Nov. 6, if every one of us does everything we can between now and then to defeat the party of Trump. One of our friends is making calls for Beto O’Rourke of Texas. Another’s knocking on doors for Jennifer Wexton in Virginia’s 10th Congressional District. Carol and I just sent checks to candidates in 10 key races. What are you doing?