Analysis: Bet the under; NFL pendulum has swung to defense

Bet the under when it comes to point totals in the NFL these days.

That might as well be the league’s new mantra with the pendumlum finally swinging back to defense, smacking the likes of Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Tom Brady and Russell Wilson along the way.

All of those Super Bowlwinning quarterbacks thrived in a golden age of explosive offenses and highscoring weekends that produced record-shattering careers and skyrocketing salaries.

Scoring is down this year, and the league’s QB royalty has been especially hard hit, suffering through the league’s sudden shift to stingier defenses that dare teams to dink and dunk it downfield without making a fatal mistake.

Brady’s Buccaneers (45), Stafford’s Rams (3-5), Wilson’s Broncos (3-5) and Rodgers’ Packers (36) all take losing records into the second half of the season.

Credit mostly the “shell” defenses popularized by former Broncos head coach Vic Fangio, who must be smirking as he watches from afar what he’s wrought on the game that dumped him in favor of the latest young offensive-minded whiz kid — how’s that working out, Denver? — but held on tightly to the old fogy’s philosophies, especially in the red zone.

The scheme drops seven defenders into coverage with two safeties deep, curtailing some of the biggest plays that quarterbacks have enjoyed for decades as the rule book, fantasy leagues, broadcast networks and sportsbooks all favored high-scoring games.

The new defensive domination is on display every weekend across the league, where a paucity of points has become the norm in so many games.

Ten teams are averaging fewer than 20 points per game this season, including Wilson’s Broncos (15.1, which is 8.1 points fewer than Seattle averaged last year), Rodgers’ Packers (17.1, down from 25.6), Stafford’s Rams (16.4, down from 27.0) and Brady’s Bucs (18.0, down from 29.9).

Brady was scowling on the sideline and staring at his first four-game losing streak in two decades Sunday when the Rams suddenly got conservative on both offense and defense, allowing the seven-time Super Bowl winner to show he has at least a little bit of magic left in that 45-yearold right arm.

On the day he became the first quarterback to ever throw for 100,000 yards in his career, it took Brady until his 58th pass in a matchup of the last two Super Bowl champions to finally find the end zone. That was good enough for the Buccaneers to beat Stafford and the reeling Rams, who have already matched last year’s loss total when they went 15-5 and won it all.