Trump’s play on Russia v. China defies reason

Donald Trump has been trashing China since he hit the campaign trail, and now he’s upping the ante.

Donald Trump has been trashing China since he hit the campaign trail.

Now he is upping the ante. More than an economic adversary, Beijing is cast as a pre-eminent foreign policy problem. While Mitt Romney warned that Russia was America’s No. 1 geopolitical foe, Trump apparently sees the Chinese as our top geopolitical enemy.

This may be because of the president-elect’s affinity for Vladimir Putin or his personal business connections with Russia. It could even be a more sophisticated argument that, between Moscow and Beijing, he sees China as more powerful, expansionist and misaligned with us in its interests, so cutting deals with Putin makes more sense.

Not to us. Both nations are adversaries, and it’s a flip of the coin deciding which is more dangerous. While oil and other interests in Trump business circles are more closely tied to Russia, the tech industry that drives the U.S. economy deals with China both in manufacturing and as a market, which, by the way, is huge.

But even arguing that Russia is a good counterbalance to China’s rising power has a flimsy basis.

It’s tempting to find historical precedent for it in Richard Nixon’s deal with Mao TseTung, which disrupted the Communist bloc and laid the groundwork for the eventual defeat of the Soviets. But Russia today is not like the China of Mao’s day. It is not a nation of poor peasants.

The Putin regime today has a very different slate of interests and expectations from the Mao regime of Nixon’s era. China’s objective then was to catch up to the West on the domestic front, not compete in the grand geopolitical game. Today, both China and Russia are bent on direct competition. Making nice with Russia won’t change that — except at an unacceptable cost.

The trust gap with Putin’s regime is simply massive, and the regime doesn’t care. No country has done as much to undermine the sovereignty of countries friendly to the United States — not to mention meddling in America’s domestic affairs, which Putin hardly bothers to deny.

Trump’s affinity for Putin frightens even most Republicans. But the two have in common their attitude toward facts: Just as Trump can be shown a video of himself saying something and still deny that he said it, Putin has denied invading, say, Crimea, despite the presence of Soviet forces on the ground.

Taking a hard bargaining position with China on trade, patents and related issues would be a very good thing for America. Unfortunately, Trump opposes the Trans Pacific Partnership, the trade deal specifically designed to deny China dominance of Asian markets. During the campaign Trump seemed to think China was part of the treaty. It is not.

It’s nice to think the president-elect has a rational justification for his embrace of Moscow and broadening vilification of China. If he does, we have yet to see it.

Taking a hard bargaining position with China on trade, patents and related issues would be a very good thing for America. Unfortunately, Trump opposes the Trans Pacific Partnership, the trade deal specifically designed to deny China dominance of Asian markets. During the campaign Trump seemed to think China was part of the treaty. It is not.