Who’ll follow Paul Ryan as speaker? Contest hums below radar

Some say it’s a fight between West and South. Or who might win an endorsement from President Donald Trump. Or a test of who can woo conservatives.

But one thing was clear Thursday: Any maneuvering in the brewing showdown between California Rep. Kevin McCarthy and Louisiana Rep. Steve Scalise for House speaker was occurring below the radar, and the leading players were choosing their words carefully.

“I’ve heard from none of the candidates, and all of the mentioned candidates are not just friends, they’re close friends,” said Rep. Bradley Byrne, R-Ala.

A day earlier, House Speaker Paul Ryan told colleagues he wouldn’t seek re-election in November, implicitly starting the race to replace him. Disconcertingly for the GOP, Trump’s unpopularity and early Democratic momentum leave it unclear whether Ryan’s replacement will be speaker or minority leader.

For now, the chief contenders are McCarthy and Scalise, two affable lawmakers who knew each other as young party activists before arriving in Congress.

McCarthy, 53, is his party’s No. 2 House leader and was one of the earliest and steadiest backers of Trump’s presidential campaign.

If Trump weighs into the contest, his clout could rally lawmakers behind his favored candidate, especially conservatives. But it could alienate moderates and others who want a leader who has their back, not necessarily the president’s. It’s uncertain whether Trump will intervene or for whom, though many suspect it would be McCarthy. White House officials declined comment.

McCarthy was elected in 2006 and rocketed into a leadership job in 2009, thanks to his campaigning for fellow Republicans. He replaced Eric Cantor as majority leader in 2014 after the Virginian unexpectedly lost a primary for his House seat and quit.

In 2015, McCarthy sought to succeed Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, who’d alienated conservatives who considered him insufficiently doctrinaire. McCarthy abruptly left that contest days later after failing to line up enough votes, and Ryan accepted the post.

Scalise, 52, the House GOP vote counter and No. 3 leader, was first elected a decade ago and had little national name recognition until tragedy thrust him into headlines. He was shot at a congressional baseball practice last year and is still recovering from his injuries, an ordeal that’s earned the conservative former state legislator broad respect.

“The strength he’s shown with his injury, I think, has heightened where he is” among colleagues, said Rep. Phil Roe, R-Tenn.

Scalise aides say he and Trump speak frequently, but they provided no detail. Trump visited Scalise in the hospital after his June 2017 shooting. Rep. John Shimkus, R-Ill., Scalise’s housemate in Wasington, said Trump often calls Scalise out by name at events.

Neither Scalise nor McCarthy have acknowledged a race for Ryan’s job or definitively denied it.

“I’ve never run against Kevin and wouldn’t run against Kevin. He and I are good friends,” Scalise said Thursday on the Fox News Channel.