For house GOP, midterm pickup chances are rare but crucial

It’s been noted a million times that Democrats need to pick up23 seats to take control of the House of Representatives in nextmonth’s midterm elections. Nearly all analysis has focused on howmany seats Republicans might lose.

Less noticed is the fact that the GOP will likely pick up asmall number of seats in congressional districts that buck thepredicted national trend by changing from Democrat to Republican.Any GOP pickups will probably be few and far between. But if therace for House control tightens in coming weeks, they could becritical.

The Republicans’ best chance to pick up a Democratic seat is inthe sprawling, 27,000-square-mile 8th District of Minnesota. Thedistrict has been represented since 2013 by a Democrat, Rep. RickNolan. Nolan has had one of the more unusual careers in the House:He was first elected in 1974; served until 1980, when he chose notto run for re-election; took a 32year break to pursue privatebusiness; and then ran for and won his old seat in 2012. Now, at age74, he has decided to retire again.

Running for the Democrats — in Minnesota, theDemocratic-FarmerLabor party — is Nolan’s former campaign manager,a former state house representative named Jim Radinovich. For theRepublicans, there is Pete Stauber, a member of the St. Louis CountyBoard of Commissioners.

Polling in September showed the race very close. But a recentNew York Times poll found Stauber with a 15-point lead, 49 percentto 34 percent, with 13 percent undecided. Stauber led with men, withwomen, with voters who had a college degree and with those whodidn’t.

The third player in the race, as in so many others, is DonaldTrump. The district voted for Barack Obama twice, and then took asharp turn toward Trump, who won by 16 points in 2016. Now, in theTimes poll, the president’s job approval rating in the district is54 percent. Trump has already jumped into the race, traveling toDuluth in June for a rally for Stauber and other Republicans.

“President Trump and his policies are more popular today thanthey were on Election Day,” said a well-connected GOP strategistrecently. “Best pickup opportunity in the country. We are going towin the seat.”

Stauber embodies what he calls the “blue-collar, common-sense”spirit of the district. He went to college, Lake Superior StateUniversity, on a hockey scholarship and played for a few years withthe minor league Adirondack Red Wings. He returned to Duluth andbecame a police officer, serving 22 years. He and his brothers alsooperate a local hockey equipment company.

Stauber got into politics when he ran for city council in theDuluth suburb of Hermantown, and after serving eight years, won aseat on the St. Louis County Commission. Last year, when it stillappeared Rick Nolan would run for re-election, but after it wasclear that the district had moved in a Trumpian direction, Stauberdecided to take the big step of running for Congress.

The substance of the campaign is a classic mix of local andnational issues. When, during a recent phone conversation, I askedStauber about his platform, the first thing he said was, “I supportiron ore mining, copper nickel mining, and Enbridge Line 3replacement.” Mining is at the heart of the local economy, and Line3 is an aging crude oil pipeline, first built in the 1960s, whoseproposed replacement has set off a vigorous debate over itspredicted environmental impact.

Stauber also pledges strong support for law enforcement and forthe military — his wife, Jodi, served 20 years in the Air NationalGuard and deployed to Iraq in 2009. He also supports Trump onimmigration.

Put it all together, and Stauber appears to be in one of thoserare spots where Republicans can play offense rather than defense.There are a few other districts — another in Minnesota, a couple inNevada, one in New Hampshire — with similar situations. But noneare quite so perfectly suited for GOP victory as Minnesota 8.Perhaps a Republican win won’t matter in the scheme of things. Butit’s also possible that, in a close race, it might make all thedifference in the world.