Lives vs. livelihoods: Which is it in Chesco?

This is a precarious time in our battle with COVID-19. Getting the balance right will be tricky.

This is a precarious time in our battle with COVID-19. Premature relaxation of stay at home orders risks lives. Keeping stay at home orders in place too long risks livelihoods. Getting the balance right will be tricky.

A recent guest column in this paper argued: “it’s time we begin to focus our energies on re-opening safely, smartly and quickly” (Guy Ciarrochi, DLN, April 27). One has to ask whether safe and smart are compatible with quick. What do available data tell us about the timing?

The chart below is derived from data published daily on the County’s COVID-19 Dashboard (www. chesco.org/4376/coronaviruscovid-19). It illustrates the total number of cases reported daily from March 12 through May 2. One might be able to argue cases have leveled off over the last three weeks (the four obvious peaks are probably due to inconsistencies in daily reporting over weekends). One thing is clear, however. The average number of daily cases remains high and is showing no sign yet of decline. Over this timeframe, 117 deaths have been attributed to COVID-19.

What else do the data tell us? The total number of cases over the last 14 days is 669. Governor Wolf’s office suggested recently that number should drop below 262 for a county with our population before re-opening our economy might begin (50 cases per 100,000 people). This metric is another indicator the case rate in Chester County is too high to enable a safe and quick re-opening at this time.

Finally, one indisputable point not reflected in the data but obvious nonetheless: we do need a plan for when the time is right to reopen our economy. Governor Wolf has proposed a phased approach (red, yellow, green), which makes a lot of sense. Our County Commissioners are working with public health officials and business and economic leaders to develop a phased plan that will get everyone back to work as quickly and safely as possible. I applaud their efforts.

Mistakes may be made along the way. That is not unexpected in these unprecedented times. But as long as we all work together, as long as we do not allow ‘Coronavirus fatigue’ to cloud our judgment and as long as we are guided by data, we will bring this public health crisis to an end as quickly and safely as possible.