Most of Pa. labeled ‘substantial risk’

Two weeks ago, it passed half. Last week, it topped 88%.

And according to a new state report released Monday, all but four counties in Pennsylvania now have a substantial risk of community spread of COVID-19.

The report shows that 63 counties of the state’s 67 counties fell into the highest of three risk categories for the week ending Friday, continuing a rapidly increasing trend that has mirrored recent spikes in statewide COVID-19 cases. Fifty-nine counties were in that category in the previous report.

The report is part of an online risk assessment tool created by the state Department of Education aimed at guiding school districts on how to provide instruction to students during the ongoing pandemic: in-person, virtually or a mix of the two.

It uses county-level COVID-19 data on incidence rates and the percent positivity of diagnostic testing to group counties into one of three categories of risk of community spread: low, moderate or substantial. A county-by-county list of ratings is released each Monday.

The state recommends that school districts in counties with substantial risk move to fully virtual classes, guidance the Pennsylvania State Education Association recently urged school districts to follow. But school districts are not bound to follow the state’s guidelines and have the ability to choose what mode of instruction they use regardless of

the county’s risk category.

Fourteen of the 18 districts in Berks currently offer some level of in-person instruction.

Berks began the school year in the moderate risk category. But that changed for the week ending Oct. 16, when a rise in COVID-19 cases led to the county moving into the substantial category.

Berks has been in the substantial category ever since.

The worsening situation in Berks is similar to what’s happening elsewhere in the state.

When the risk assessment tool was first unveiled in August, just a few weeks before the start of the school year, only one county was listed as having a substantial risk. But as COVID-19 case numbers have ballooned over recent weeks more and more counties have found themselves in that category.

For the second week in a row, all of the counties in the region fell into the substantial risk category, including Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Lancaster, Lebanon, Lehigh, Montgomery and Schuylkill.

In Monday’s report, only Sullivan and Cameron counties had a low risk of community spread. They are the two least populated counties in the state.

Wayne and Pike counties were the only counties with a moderate risk.

The increasing number of counties with substantial risk follows an ongoing rise in statewide COVID-19 cases.