Winter storm forecast: It’s complicated

Sunday-Monday scenario remains a tough call

Some forecasters are confident that Berks County and the region will take a big winter hit Sunday and Monday with others adopting a wait-and-see policy.

On Friday, AccuWeather was sticking with its forecast of 6 to 10 inches of snow. Weatherunderground.com was settled on 9.5 inches for a storm total, pinpointing things for the Reading metro area.

The seasonal snow total for Berks is 9.8 inches, nearly all of which occurred in the Dec. 16 storm. A week ago, snow was a possibility on two occasions this week but neither of those scenarios panned out.

No watches and warnings were out Friday.

The National Weather Service office in Mount Holly is treading lightly about Sunday-Monday: “This remains a low confidence forecast, and much can change.”

Mount Holly is forecasting 4 to 6 inches of snow for Berks.

Berks is among the counties overseen by that office, but Berks is on the western edge, next to the coverage area overseen by the State College office.

That office, too, lists uncertainties. Both offices are mainly uncertain about the development of a secondary low late Sunday and where it tracks.

Tom Kines, AccuWeather senior meteorologist, wasn’t yet onboard with his company’s forecast.

“There’s a lot of question marks with this storm,” he said. “We’ll have to wait until this storm gets out of the Rockies and into the Plains before we can get more certain. That won’t be until tomorrow (Saturday).”

Kines said the energy for the storm is from the system that pounded California this week.

He did say that if Berks residents have weekend plans it would be better to do them Saturday than Sunday.

Kines also said the storm was not likely to bring a foot or more of snow to a large area. Those impacts would be over a small area, but it was too early to determine that bulls-eye.

Retired meteorologist Jeffrey R. Stoudt of Lincoln Park, founder of the Berks Area Rainfall Networks, was checking the modeling and also pointed to uncertainty.

“As much as 2 inches in rainfall equivalent is plausible, which could potentially lay well over a foot of snow,” he said. “But it could flop, too.”

“The uncertainty of amount would come mostly from the path of the two low pressure centers involved,” he said in agreement with the others.

Expect sunny conditions Saturday with the mercury struggling to reach the freezing mark but a little nicer than Thursday and Friday, according to AccuWeather.

Clouds are expected to roll in overnight and keep the temperature in the 20s as damp bone-chilling cold sets in with approaching snow.

Snow could start as early as midafternoon Sunday but likely not until after nightfall since the air is very dry. The forecasts diverge on Monday, but precipitation is likely into the early hours of Tuesday.

Skies should clear Tuesday with the mercury getting above freezing and possibly starting to melt the frozen precipitation on the ground.

Above-freezing daytimes are forecast for the rest of the workweek.

The official temperature at Reading Regional Airport hit freezing on the way down about 7 p.m. Wednesday and might not get back above freezing until Tuesday and the melt starts.