Expert says virus winning the race

Another COVID surge has come about just when it seemed unlikely that it could happen due to the numbers of people who already had the illness and the numbers of vaccinations.

“Can we vaccine enough people quickly enough to stay ahead of the virus?” asked Dr. William Schaffner, professor of infectious diseases at the Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, Tenn. “In many places in the country the virus is in the lead.”

The virus is in the lead in Berks County and Pennsylvania with surging case numbers and hospitalizations, an about-face from the start of March.

The Berks case count is up about 60% since early March, and Pennsylvania overall has seen a sharp increase in the past week.

In Pennsylvania more than 1 million people have had COVID and nearly 1.8 million people have been completely vaccinated against it. There are about 12.8 million residents in the state.

In Berks, the Tuesday vaccinations statistics increased by the most yet with about 4,000 residents added to the rolls. There were about 1,000 more completed inoculations and nearly 3,000 first shots.

Despite all the progress, the surge that began at about the anniversary of the start of the pandemic a year ago continues.

In Pennsylvania the daily count of those hospitalized was down to about 1,450 a month ago, and has surged to more than 1,900 on Tuesday, an upswing of about 30%.

Schaffner said the U.K. variant is now dominant, and that strain is more contagious and makes victims sicker. It is picking up those who don’t fall into either category of former victims with antibodies and those immune through vaccination. There are other reasons. “There is more travel, restaurants are opening and people are discarding their masks,” Schaffner said. “And this provides exactly the environment for this variant to spread.”

On top of that, there is fatigue from political leaders in pushing for residents to continue to protect themselves and ordinary Americans as well are tired of not going places and doing things they once did, the professor said.

“We are in a race now between getting the vaccine out and the resurgence,” he said.

On the vaccine side of things, Schaffner said he believes younger people are reluctant to get it: “They might say, let the old fogies get vaccinated, I don’t need that.”

Vaccinations in Pennsylvania are not yet open to anyone younger than 65 unless they qualify due to one of numerous preexisting conditions.

Plus, Schaffner has learned that not all vaccine appointments are being filled in many parts of the country.

“Vaccine supply exceeds demand,” he said.

Ed Hudon, owner of the Medicine Shoppe in Boyertown, the provider with the most vaccine in Berks over the past month, said that is not his experience.

“We had 2,400 appointments on Sunday and all 2,400 were filled,” he said. “I was a little worried about filling 2,400 but we hit it, and nothing was wasted.”

The Medicine Shoppe is running a clinic for 3,000 on Saturday. The registration opened Monday and about half the slots were booked at midday Tuesday, Hudon said.

Double booking is still the only problem, and he has a waiting list to fill slots when someone doesn’t show for his clinic, opting for another.

Schaffner said there is an increasing proportion of people under age 65 being hospitalized because “they are the very people who are taking off their masks, going to bars and traveling.

“And many have chronic underlying diseases that make them vulnerable.”

He said there are few people who get COVID a second time.

There are also many people who won’t take any vaccine, though surveys show that number has decreased slightly.

“COVID has twists along the way and these variants are a twist,” Schaffner said.

Even when this surge is beaten, it still might not be the end of the pandemic.

“We will have more opportunities for this virus to continue the spread,” Schaffner said.