First look at top 10 Classic contenders — but it's early
There were no surprises when the first Breeders' Cup Classic rankings were announced this week. Flightline, Country Grammer, Life Is Good and Hot Rod Charlie led the way as a panel of 42 voters ranked their top 10 Classic contenders leading up to the $6 million centerpiece of this year's Breeders' Cup, Nov. 4-5 at Keeneland.
I was chosen to be on the voting panel again, an honor I don't take lightly, and the first ballot is always the toughest because we're just heading into the summer heavyweight races that will help determine the horses to beat at the Super Bowl of horse racing.
My initial ballot, with the expectation that my final top 10 the week of
Oct. 11 could be drastically different than the first, with brief comments on each Classic contender:
You ordinarily might not put a horse who's never raced beyond one turn at the top of a list that includes many others who are tested at 1 1/8 miles and beyond. But Flightline is no ordinary horse, and his jockey, Flavien Prat, says the Tapit colt can easily handle a distance of ground.
Next start: Grade I Pacific Classic at Del Mar on Sept. 3.
It remains to be seen if the 5-year-old son of Tonalist is the same horse after two races in the Middle East — a second in the Saudi Cup and an impressive victory in the Dubai World Cup. It's a grueling trip, and some horses don't retain their brilliance once they return home. Remember Arrogate?
Next start: Possibly the Grade II San Diego Handicap at Del Mar on July 30.
Some are down on this 4-year-old Into Mischief colt because he faded late to finish fourth in the Dubai World Cup. But horses aren't machines and sometimes they don't fire their best shots. The Todd Pletcher-trained colt deserves a mulligan.
Next start: Grade II Nerud Stakes at Belmont Park on Saturday.
The knock on the Doug O'Neill-trained son of Oxbow is that he rarely wins. He's always right there at the finish, which shows his consistency, but he's won only four of 16 starts. To be fair, he did win the Haskell Invitational at Monmouth last summer, only to be disqualified.
Next start: Possibly the Grade I Whitney Stakes at Saratoga on Aug. 6.
The highest-rated 3-year-old on our ballot, the Uncle Mo colt won the Wood Memorial, didn't disgrace himself with a fifth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby, and then won the marathon Belmont Stakes to keep his chances alive for an Eclipse Award as top sophomore male.
Next start: Possibly the Grade II Jim Dandy Stakes at Saratoga on July 30.
6. EARLY VOTING
This year's Preakness Stakes winner, trained by Chad Brown, has won three of his four starts. The only blemish on his record was a runner-up effort in the Wood behind Mo Donegal. The Gun Runner colt seems to be getting better with each race.
Next start: The Grade I Haskell at Monmouth
Park on July 23 or the Jim Dandy.
Thought to be nothing more than a synthetictrack specialist, the Pioneerof the Nile colt proved that label wrong by winning last weekend's Ohio Derby on the dirt over Florida Derby winner White Abarrio. He's another who seems to be peaking at the right time.
Next start: Unknown.
The son of Race Day won four of his first five races before a disastrous trip in the Kentucky Derby led to a 16th-place finish and a short respite before his strong outing in the Ohio Derby. The Saffie A. Joseph Jr.-trained colt's Derby nightmare is the only time he's finished worse than third in seven outings.
Next start: The Jim Dandy.
One of these years trainer Steve Asmussen will get his first Kentucky Derby victory, but it's been an elusive target for the man who trained Rachel Alexandra and Gun Runner. Epicenter, a son of Not This Time, almost turned the trick for Asmussen this spring only to fall victim to Rich Strike's shocking victory.
Next start: Possibly the Grade I Travers Stakes at Saratoga on Aug. 27.
The 5-year-old son of Union Rags has had a productive 2022 to date, winning the Grade II San Pasqual Stakes at Santa Anita and the Santa Anita Handicap before coming up second best behind Stilleto Boy in the Grade II Californian.
Next start: Possibly the San Diego Handicap.
OUT OF THE GATE
Through Thursday
Ramon Vazquez / 4 Kyle Frey / 2
Juan Hernandez / 2 Diego Herrera / 2 Edwin Maldonado / 2
John Sadler / 3 Milton Pineda / 2 13 tied / 1
• $200,000 Grade II Great Lady M. Stakes, fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, 6 1/2 furlongs
• Saturday's $750,000 Grade II Stephen Foster Stakes at Churchill Downs features two of the horses that are considered contenders for the $6 million Breeders' Cup Classic at Keeneland on Nov. 5. Mandaloun, the official winner of the 2021 Kentucky Derby after the disqualification of Medina Spirit, is the 2-1 morningline favorite, followed by Olympiad at 5-2. Mandaloun, who also benefitted from a DQ in last summer's Haskell Stakes when Hot Rod Charlie was disqualified, will have Florent Geroux in the saddle for trainer Brad Cox.
• Life Is Good, who beat 2021 Horse of the Year Knicks Go in the Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream Park and then faded to finish fourth in the Dubai World Cup, is the 1-2 morning-line favorite in Saturday's $250,000 Grade II Nerud Stakes at Belmont Park. The 4-year-old Into Mischief colt will be making his first start since the Dubai World Cup and Flavien
Prat will ride for trainer Todd Pletcher. Speaker's Corner, third in the Met Mile on June 11 at Belmont, is the 6-5 second choice and will be ridden by Jose Ortiz for Bill Mott.
• Del Mar plans to card only eight races on Thursdays and Fridays this summer, with the exceptions being opening day, Friday, July 22, and the final Friday of the meet that ends Sept. 11. This year's $1 million Grade I Pacific Classic, the showcase of the meet, might include a Flightline-Country Grammer matchup on Sept. 3. Flightline is undefeated in four races, winning by a combined 43 1/2 lengths, and Country Grammer returns to the U.S. following an impressive victory in the $12 million Dubai World Cup on March 26.