Kentucky Derby shaping up as a two-horse battle
Say goodbye to Cave Rock and Victory Formation and welcome National Treasure and Confidence Game to our Kentucky Derby Super Six.
Cave Rock is off the Derby trail, perhaps a late start to his 3-year-old campaign and all the bad weather in Southern California contributing to a decision to leave the colt in the Bob Baffert barn.
In order for Cave Rock to be eligible to pick up qualifying points for the Derby, he would have needed to be transferred to a trainer other than Baffert before the end of February. Since he wasn’t, the best guess here is that he’ll be pointed to either the Preakness or Belmont Stakes.
Victory Formation ran up the track in the Risen Star Stakes at the Fair Grounds on Feb. 18, finishing ninth and dropping out of our rankings.
Right now, this looks like a two-horse race to find the winner’s circle on Derby day. Arabian Knight and Forte look to be at the head of the class, with Practical Move just a notch below the top two.
Here’s how we see the Derby picture nine weeks from the big race:
1. ARABIAN KNIGHT » This Uncle Mo colt has been highly regarded since he breezed to victory in his debut on the Breeders’ Cup undercard at Keeneland on Nov. 5.
He followed up that sparkling effort with a victory in the Grade III Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Jan. 28.
Now in the
Tim Yakteen barn so he can earn Derby qualifying points, he’ll turn in his final Derby prep in either the Arkansas Derby on April 1 or the Santa Anita Derby on April 8.
Top Beyer speed rating: 97.
2. FORTE » The son of Violence most likely would be No. 1 on this list if not for Arabian Knight. It’s possible we could have two 3-year-old monsters this year. Forte, the 2-year-old champion of 2022, has won five of six and passes the eye test most every time he runs.
Forte’s most recent victory came in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park last weekend. The Florida Derby on March 25 will most likely be his final Derby prep.
Top Beyer: 100.
3. PRACTICAL MOVE » A $230,000 purchase at a 2-year-olds in training sale, the Yakteen trainee didn’t particularly impress anyone until the
Los Alamitos Futurity on Dec. 18 when he won at 10-1 while running the 1 1/16 miles in an impressive 1:41.65.
The Practical Joke colt resurfaced last weekend in the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita and won just as impressively. He prevailed by 2 ½ lengths under Ramon Vazquez while running the 1 1/16 miles in 1:42.01.
Top Beyer: 100.
4. INSTANT COFFEE » A
Bolt d’Oro colt trained by Brad Cox, Instant Coffee made his 2023 debut a winning one, taking the Lecomte Stakes at the Fair Grounds on Jan. 21. He figures to make his final start before the Kentucky Derby in the Louisiana Derby on March 25.
He’s won three of four, with his only loss coming in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland on Oct. 8 when he finished fourth.
Top Beyer: 92.
5. NATIONAL TREASURE » He missed last weekend’s San Felipe with a bruised foot, but the injury is not believed to be serious. No word on the Quality Road colt’s next start.
This guy reminds me a lot of Country House, who kept running in the money in his Derby preps but never found the winner’s circle until Derby day when he won via the disqualification of Maximum Security.
Top Beyer: 97
6. CONFIDENCE GAME »
The son of Candy Ride was impressive in victory in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Feb. 25, but was the win a case of the colt showing improvement or the fact he liked the muddy track?
Perhaps we’ll find out in either the Arkansas Derby or Blue Grass Stakes (April 8).
Top Beyer: 94.
RACE 1
1273 —
6 Furlongs (Turf). Maiden Claiming. 3 year olds. Claiming Prices $50,000-$45,000. Purse $39,000.
Horse, Jockey
Scratched —
RACE 2
Time —
RACE 3
RACE 4
Horse, Jockey
Wt
Bali Dancer, Frey 121 Sensible Move, Pereira 124 Dolly May, J Hernandez 120 A Crown for Kitten, VnDyke 120 Sweet Heidelberg, Rspli 124 Lasting Love, Dettori 124 Cheerful Charm, Cntras 124 Bali Dancer
Sensible Move
Dolly May (IRE)
Wt
Seattle Breakout, Cntras 124 Divine Rascal, Gonzalez 124 Giant’s Brite Eye, Garcia 124 American Cat, Frey 124 Big Splash, Franco 124 Quick Intro, Aguilar 115 Divine Feminine, Cedillo 124 Dutch Bus, Herrera 124
1⁄4
1⁄4
3 4 4-1 4 1 1-hd 6 2 2-hd 7 5 3-11⁄2 1 8 6-hd 8 3 5-1 2 7 7-1⁄2 5 6 8
1⁄2
Str
Claimed —
FinOdds
Seismic Spirit, J Hrndez 122 2 1 1-hd 1-1⁄2 1-1⁄2 1-23⁄4 Giovinazzo, Maldonado 122 5 2 2-11⁄2 2-2 2-31⁄2 2-41⁄4 Lasmuigh (GB), D Herrera 122 1 8 3-1⁄2 3-11⁄2 3-21⁄2 3-1⁄2 Anticipated, Aguilar 113 8 4 7-hd 7-2 5-hd 4-hd Sippin Whiskey, Franco 122 3 7 8 6-hd 6-11⁄2 5-11⁄4 Cryptoholic, Gutierrez 122 4 6 4-1 4-3 4-1 6-41⁄2 The Slap, Van Dyke 122 6 5 5-hd 5-2 7-21⁄2 7-13⁄4 Speed of the Nile, Pereira 122 7 3 6-21⁄2 8 8 8
5.20
3 6 2 Seismic Spirit (IRE) Giovinazzo Lasmuigh (GB)
Exacta (3-6) paid $19.30; Superfecta (3-6-2-10) paid $68.31; Trifecta (3-6-2) paid $28.15; X-5 Super High Five (3-6-2-10-4); X-5 Super High Five carryover $1,747.
Winner —
Seismic Spirit (IRE) Ch.g.3 by Belardo (IRE) out of Tough Spirit (IRE), by Iffraaj (GB). Bred by Denis McDonnell (IRE). Trainer: Peter Miller. Owner: Slam Dunk Racing;
Chirag, Mongolian Rocket; Cryptoholic by Mark D. and Patricia L. Cofer Trust and Webb Family Trust. Trainer: Jeff Mullins; :22.61 :45.24 :57.16 1:09.50 Clear. Firm.
1274 —
1 Mile. Maiden Claiming. 45 year olds. Claiming Price $20,000. Purse $24,000.
Horse, Jockey
Frost Alert, Maldonado 124 5 1-41⁄2 1-31⁄2 1-11⁄2 1-hd 1-11⁄4 2.5 Batukhan, D Van Dyke 124 1 4-hd 4-1 3-62-21⁄2 2-61⁄4 1.3 Storming Chrome, Aglar 117 4 2-hd 2-1 2-hd 3-5 3-31⁄4 1.8 Whiskey Vision, Barbsa 114 2 6 6 5-2 4-4 4-7 22.5 Naughty Niko, Cntreras 124 3 3-11⁄2 3-hd 4-1⁄2 5-7 5-13 14.9 Valiente, Alsagoor 117 6 5-11⁄25-21⁄2 6 6 6 83.2 2.20
2.10
2.10
6 2 5 Frost Alert Batukhan (IRE) Storming Chrome Daily Double (3-6) paid $18.40; Daily Double Pool $28,086; Exacta (6-2) paid $7.10; Superfecta (6-2-5-3) paid $2.09; Trifecta (6-2-5) paid $6.05; Consolation Double (3-1) paid $4.60. Winner —
Frost Alert Dbb.g.4 by Frosted out of The Dream (CHI), by Scat Daddy. Bred by Don Alberto Corporation (KY). Trainer: Steve R. Knapp. Owner: Les Blake; Samba Flavor; :22.39 :46.62 1:11.36 1:25.00 1:38.82 Clear. Fast.
1275 —
1 Mile (Turf). Claiming. Fillies and Mares. 4 year olds and up. Claiming Prices $32,000-$25,000. Purse $37,000.
Horse, Jockey 4 1 6 Daily Double (6-4) paid $66.20; Daily Double Pool $16,186; Exacta (4-1) paid $28.60; Superfecta (4-1-6-7) paid $32.79; Super High Five (4-1-6-7-3) paid $1,057.40; Trifecta (4-1-6) paid $36.00; Pick Three (3-6-4) paid $28.80; Pick Three Pool $48,897; Consolation Pick Three (3-1-4) paid $11.05.
Winner —
Bali Dancer Ch.f.4 by Bal a Bali (BRZ) out of A. P. Investment, by A.P. Indy. Bred by Calumet Farm (KY). Trainer: Librado Barocio. Owner: Melvin Simonovich; Dolly May (IRE) by Cohen, Stuart, Pellman, Harry and Seymour, Lauri. Trainer: Vladimir Cerin; :25.29 :49.76 1:13.26 1:24.94 1:36.84 Clear. Firm. 1276 — 6 Furlongs. Claiming. 4 year olds and up. Claiming Prices $16,000-$12,500. Purse $26,000.
3 4 6 Seattle Breakout Divine Rascal Giant’s Brite Eye
Daily Double (4-3) paid $534.40; Daily Double Pool $22,173; Exacta (3-4) paid $208.50; Superfecta (3-4-6-7) paid $2,372.35; Trifecta (3-4-6) paid $1,967.45; X-5 Super High Five (3-4-6-7-1) ; X-5 Super High Five carryover $6,601; Pick Three (6-4-3) paid $259.60; Pick Three Pool $15,946.
Winner —
Seattle Breakout B.g.5 by Vronsky out of Pink Blossom, by Proud Citizen. Bred by Headley, Todaro & Old English Rancho (CA). Trainer: Karen Headley. Owner: Estate of Bruce Headley, Matson Racing and Todaro, George;
Divine Rascal by Tricar Stables, Inc. Trainer: Jorge Periban;
American Cat by Belico Racing LLC, Ruiz, Lorenzo and Valdez, Jaime. Trainer: Lorenzo Ruiz; Quick Intro by Jaime Morfin. Trainer: Sergio Morfin; Dutch Bus by Tim Yakteen. Trainer: Tim Yakteen; :22.41 :45.10 :58.26 1:11.15 Clear. Fast.
—
Claimed —
RACE 5
1277 —
61⁄2 Furlongs (Turf). Starter Optional Claiming. Fillies. 3 year olds. Claiming Price $50,000. Purse $40,000.
Horse, Jockey
Midnight Vow, Pereira
Wt P St
Time —
Wt P
P4 1-1 1-1⁄2 1-1 1-1⁄2 1-11⁄2 1 4-1 4-1⁄2 4-1⁄2 3-hd 2-ns 6 2-1 2-1 2-1 2-11⁄2 3-11⁄2 7 3-1⁄2 3-1⁄2 5-2 4-1⁄2 4-nk 3 7 7 7 7 5-3⁄4 56-11⁄2 5-hd 6-11⁄2 6-11⁄2 6-13⁄4 2 5-11⁄2 6-11⁄2 3-1⁄2 5-1 7
Wt P
122 5
1⁄4
7.00
1⁄4
12.80
Time —
P St
40.80
St 3.20 8.00
1⁄2 3.20 2.80
1⁄2 5.20 5.60
4-4 3-hd 1-13⁄4 19.4 1-hd 2-11⁄2 2-nk 9.3
2-1 1-hd 3-23⁄4 69.2 3-11⁄2 4-3 4-1⁄2 0.9
6-2 5-11⁄2 5-41⁄4 27.6 5-hd 6-2 6-nk 5.6 7-21⁄2 7-5 7-10 39.4
8 8 8 2.4
16.20 10.80
1⁄4
32-hd
2.40 4.80 3.00
3⁄4 Str
Fin Odds
Scratched —
3⁄4
Str 3.00 2.80 2.10
Fin Odds
Claimed —
1⁄2
Str 10.40
7.40 24.00
Fin Odds
Claimed
Claimed — Claimed — Time —
1⁄2 Str
Fin Odds
2-1⁄22-11⁄21-11⁄2
1.6 10.5
3.1 60.5 19.3 6.2 3.0 33.9 5.4 5.9 0.7 20.7 12.7 10.9
8.9
4.7
Spanning the Globe, Kmra 122 3 8 5-hd 4-1 Happy Gal, Velazquez 122 2 6 6-11⁄2 6-hd Daddy Classy Dill, Cstllns 122 7 2 3-hd 1-hd Bye Bye Buggsy, Dettori 122 1 7 4-2 5-1⁄2 Balenciaga Betty, Rispoli 122 8 4 7-4 7-6 Thread Count, Van Dyke 122 4 1 1-hd 3-1 Jordan, Aguilar 115 6 5 8 8
6 3 2
Daily Double (3-6) paid $615.20; Daily Double Pool $21,298; Exacta (6-3) paid $31.00; Superfecta (6-3-2-8) paid $136.69; Super High Five (6-3-2-8-1) paid $8,585.40; Trifecta (6-3-2) paid $29.95; Pick Three (4-3-6) paid $620.90; Pick Three Pool $35,024; Pick Four (6-4-3-6) 4 correct paid $1,809.45; Pick Four Pool $104,321; Pick Five (3/7-6-4-3-6) 5 correct paid $5,783.20; Pick Five Pool $316,069.
Winner —
Midnight Vow Dbb.f.3 by Broken Vow out of Magical Band, by Dixie Union. Bred by George Yager & Hector Palma (KY). Trainer: Hector O. Palma. Owner: BG Stables and Royalty Stable; Cornelia Fort; :23.21 :46.43 1:10.31 1:16.75 Clear. Firm.
RACE 6
1278 —
6 Furlongs. Allowance Optional Claiming. Fillies and Mares. 4 year olds and up. Claiming Price $20,000. Purse $72,000.
Horse, Jockey
Sheza Girly Girl, Prat 124 Starship Defiant, Dettori 124 Big Shamrock, Maldnado 124 Saturday Heist, Cntreras 124 Vegan, Frey 124 La Deuxieme Etoile, Gtrrz 124 Precious Baby, Smith 124
6 5 2 Sheza Girly Girl Starship Defiant Big Shamrock
Daily Double (6-6) paid $45.80; Daily Double Pool $22,575; Exacta (6-5) paid $22.60; Superfecta (6-5-2-7) paid $25.41; Super High Five (6-5-2-7-3) paid $2,683.30; Trifecta (6-5-2) paid $33.50; Pick Three (3-6-6) paid $253.00; Pick Three Pool $32,147.
Winner —
Sheza Girly Girl Dbb.m.6 by Richard’s Kid out of Sheza Eyeopener, by Grand Reward. Bred by Tom Halasz & Richard Brown (CA). Trainer: George Papaprodromou. Owner: Davis Racing LLC, Giordano, Louis A. and Mueller, Martin;
Big Shamrock by Carlos, Felipe and Ruiz, Lorenzo. Trainer: Lorenzo Ruiz; :22.57 :45.36 :58.05 1:10.92 Clear. Fast.
Claimed —
RACE 7
1279 —
11⁄4 Mile (Turf). Allowance. 4 year olds and up. Purse $72,000
Horse, Jockey
Midnight Jostar, Desrmx 122 2 6-1 4-1⁄2 3-1⁄2 2-2 1-13⁄4 3.7 Seven Wonders, Dettori 122 4 1-1 1-1 1-11⁄2 1-11⁄2 2-1⁄2 9.9 Aligato, Prat 124 6 3-1 3-hd 5-hd 3-hd 3-11⁄4 2.8 General Mathis, Cntreras122 38-21⁄26-hd 6-21⁄2 4-11⁄2 4-21⁄4 4.8 Bee Catcher, Kimura 122 9 5-2 5-1 4-hd 5-hd 5-11⁄4 27.8 Foothill, Velazquez 124 8 2-3 2-11⁄2 2-hd 6-1 6-1⁄2 8.4 Agatino, J Hernandez 122 74-1⁄2 7-1 7-1 7-11⁄2 7-21⁄2 4.0 Ajaaweed, Frey 122 17-1⁄2 8-21⁄2 8-3 8-8 8-26 9.4 Bender, Maldonado 122 5 9 9 9 9 9 54.9
2 4 6 Midnight Jostar Seven Wonders Aligato
Daily Double (6-2) paid $40.60; Daily Double Pool $23,900; Exacta (2-4) paid $33.20; Superfecta (2-4-6-3) paid $39.93; Super High Five (2-4-6-3-9) ; Super High Five carryover $2,187; Trifecta (2-4-6) paid $57.50; Pick Three (6-6-2) paid $41.10; Pick Three Pool $32,223.
Winner —
Midnight Jostar Dbb.g.6 by Midnight Lute out of Star of Johar, by Johar. Bred by Midnight Lute Syndicate, Emerald QPartners, Inc. & TCR Ranch (KY). Trainer: Philip D’Amato. Owner: Slam Dunk Racing and Newman, Roger H;
:22.91 :46.07 1:10.86 1:35.08 1:59.09 Clear. Firm.
RACE 8
1280 —
Fin Odds
FinOdds
61⁄2 Furlongs. Maiden Claiming. Fillies. 3 year olds. Claiming Prices $50,000-$45,000. Purse $39,000.
Horse, Jockey
Storm d’Oro, Aguilar 115 5 Turquoise Bikini, Cedillo 122 2 Sweet Hello, Rispoli 122 3 Sheza Lucky Charm, Prat 122 4 Del Mar Woman, Castllnos 120 1 La Chispa, Herrera 122 6 Smokemonthecliff, Vzquez 120 7
7 3 4 Midnight Vow Spanning the Globe Happy Gal
Scratched — Storm d’Oro Turquoise Bikini Sweet Hello
Daily Double (2-7) paid $43.40; Daily Double Pool $59,919; Exacta (7-3) paid $30.70; Superfecta (7-3-4-6) paid $12.89; Super High Five (7-3-4-6-2) 27 tickets paid $482.50; Trifecta (7-3-4) paid $34.75; Consolation Double (2-1) paid $9.00; Pick Three (6-2-7) paid $19.35; Pick Three Pool $83,455; Consolation Pick Three (6-2-1) paid $4.40; Pick Four (6-6-2-7) 1506 tickets with 4 correct paid $133.05; Pick Four Pool $262,622; Pick Five (3-6-6-2-7) 59 tickets with 5 correct paid $3,228.40; Pick Five Pool $249,575; Pick Six JACKPOT (4-3-6-6-2-7) 3 tickets with 6 correct paid $10,051.98; Pick Six JACKPOT Pool $56,447; Pick Six JACKPOT carryover $38,950.
Winner —
Storm d’Oro B.f.3 by Gato Del Oro out of Sardonic, by Distorted Humor. Bred by BG Thoroughbred Farms (CA). Trainer: Hector O. Palma. Owner: BG Stables and Royalty Stable; Dads Estrella, Miss Jo’s Candy;
:21.91 :45.29 1:12.18 1:19.61 Clear. Fast.
Scratched — On-Track Attendance: Out of State / Phone: Total Attendance:
Wt
Time —
Wt P
Time —
6-21⁄2 5-1 4-31⁄2 1-2
2-2 2-2 1-hd 2-3⁄4 1-hd 1-hd 2-1⁄2 3-1⁄2
5-3 3-21⁄2 3-1 4-4 3-hd 4-11⁄2 5-11⁄2 5-13⁄4 4-1⁄2 6-3 6-2 6-1⁄2
7 7 7 7
Wt P St
2,047; N/A; 2,047;
11.40
P St
6 6 5 2 2 1 7 5 3 3 4 4 1 7
6.20
1⁄2
9.40
3 5-2 3-4 1-31⁄2 1-7 2.2 6 1-hd 1-hd 2-3 2-5 13.4 5 2-1 2-1⁄2 3-21⁄2 3-1⁄2 1.9 4 7 7 5-hd 4-11⁄4 2.8 7 6-1⁄2 6-hd 6-1⁄2 5-31⁄4 31.7 1 3-1 4-hd 4-11⁄26-31⁄2 32.0 2 4-hd5-21⁄2 7 7 5.6
6.40 6.00 5.00
1⁄4
3.80 12.20
3⁄41Mile
6.00 11.00
1⁄4
4.00 10.60
1⁄2
1⁄2
Mutuel Handle: Mutuel Handle: Total Mutuel Handle:
3-2 2-11⁄4 4-hd 3-hd 1-1⁄2 4-3⁄4 6-1⁄2 5-3⁄4 5-hd6-51⁄2 7-5 7-21⁄4
8 8
3.20 2.60 2.10
Str 2.60 4.80 2.60
Str 3.60 5.80 3.20
Time —
Str 2.80 3.80 2.40
FinOdds
Time —
$277,309 $4,366,613
$5,440,462 4.8 0.9 74.0 12.2
9.7 16.4 12.8
2.1 14.1 2.3 9.9 29.7
2.2 15.7