The first Kentucky Derby Super Six list of the year
For some, it’s tough enough to pick the Kentucky Derby winner the day of the race. Try picking the winner more than 100 days ahead of time. It’s like predicting today what the weather will be like on Derby day.
Three-year-olds are a tricky bunch. They might look like a million bucks as juveniles, but some don’t carry that 2-year-old brilliance into their sophomore year. While some mature and get better, others regress and don’t take that next step.
Need further proof?
Try this: Since the Breeders’ Cup debuted at Hollywood Park in 1984, only two winners of the Juvenile have parlayed that success into glory at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May.
The most recent to turn the trick was Nyquist, who won the 2015 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Keeneland and went on to win the Derby for owner Paul Reddam and trainer Doug O’Neill the following spring. Before that? You have to go all the way back to 2006 and 2007 when Street Sense scored the rare Juvenile-Derby double.
Can Fierceness become the third colt to win the Juvenile and Derby? He certainly looked the part of a Derby winner during last fall’s Breeders’ Cup, winning the race by 6¼ lengths at the juicy odds of 16-1 in an impressive 1:41.90 for the mile and one sixteenth.
But the City of Light colt’s owner, Mike Repole, is not about to get caught up in Kentucky Derby fever. Not yet, anyway. He’s been down this path before. His Forte won the 2022 Juvenile and was the Derby favorite the morning of the race, only to be scratched a few hours later because of a bruised right front foot.
That wasn’t the only time Repole had his heart ripped out. Uncle Mo, who won the 2010 Juvenile and was the Derby favorite six months later, was declared out of the Derby the day before the race because of a gastrointestinal infection.
So don’t tell Repole he’s looking good heading into the 150th renewal of the Derby on May 4. Or be prepared to duck.
“They will all tell you to start thinking about the Derby,” Repole told reporters shortly after Fierceness’ dominating victory at the Breeders’ Cup. “I’m not going to think about the Derby with this race.”
Wise man.
Here’s a look at our first Kentucky Derby Super Six of the year 113 days before the Run for the Roses:
Stakes at Santa Anita by 2¾ lengths in 1:23.01 for the 7 furlongs. Baffert also trains Muth, giving him another full arsenal for Derby day. He’s also got Prince of Monaco and Pilot Commander.
Next start: Undecided.
Today’s first post: 12:30 p.m.
RACE 1
75 —
61⁄2 Furlongs (Turf). Claiming. Fillies and Mares. 4 year olds and up. Claiming Price $25,000. Purse $30,000.
Horse, Jockey
Longshot:
RACE 4
78 —
Horse, Jockey
Wt PP Comment
Leopardess, Desormeaux 124 Red Diamond, Alsagoor 124 Dolly May, Rosario 124 Ankyrah, T. Baze 124 Aventapp, Fresu 124 North East Star, Kimura 124 De Joria, G. Franco 124 Grazen Touch, Pereira 124 Corporal Violette, Ayuso 124 Miss Commander, Frey 124
NORTH EAST STAR
Longshot:
RACE 2
76 —
119 124 124 124 124 119 119 7 5 4 2 3 8 9 10 1 6 6 2 3 4 5 7 1 $25,000 Hess claim Taking on lesser Shortens for Cerin Beat one, drops Lone win in 2022 Worked in 1:013⁄5 Runner-up at 3-2 Graduated at LA Stumbled at start Switches to grass
Wt PP Comment
Wt PP Comment
61⁄2 Furlongs. Starter Optional Claiming. Fillies and Mares. 4 year olds and up. Claiming Price $32,000. Purse $40,000.
Wt PP Comment
Odds
4-1 7-2 3-1 9-2 8-1 10-1 15-1 15-1 20-1 20-1
1 Mile. Maiden Claiming. 4 to 5 year olds. Claiming Price $20,000. Purse $23,000.
Horse, Jockey
Aviator Nation, Torrealba Fifty Cinco, Ayuso
I Got a Guy, D. Herrera
Sure Prospect, T. Baze Torleif, A. Aguilar
Running for Cosi, A.Escbdo Number One Son, Mackay
SURE PROSPECT
Longshot:
RACE 3
77 —
Odds
Tokamak won next out 2-1 Tries more distance 5-2 Figures in the mix 7-2 471⁄5 SLR bullet 8-1 Puts on blinkers 12-1 No factor at 44-1 20-1 Would be big surprise 30-1
6 Furlongs (Turf). Maiden Special Weight. 4 to 5 year olds. State bred. Purse $65,000.
Horse, Jockey
Sneak a Smile, Pereira 124 2 Faced open company Antonsen, J. Hernandez 124 5 More yardage aids Rhythem On Stage, Fresu 124 1 ‘Rose won again More Try, M. Gutierrez 124 7 Inside to outside Bronko Nagurski, Kimura 124 6 He’s now a gelding Remi Or Not, R. Gonzalez 124 4 Debuts at age 5 Thank You Honey, Torrealba119 3 Route to sprint
BRONKO NAGURSKI
Odds
7-2 3-1 5-2 6-1 10-1 15-1 15-1
Big Gain, Kimura 122 Citadino, T. Baze 122 Mischief Moments, G.Frnco 122
DEAL EM
Longshot:
RACE 6
80 —
Horse, Jockey
Longshot:
RACE 7
81 —
Horse, Jockey
In Your Face, J. Hernandez 124 Katerini, Prat 124 Annie’s Joy, Fresu 124 Strange Addiction, Dettori 124 Ruff Ride, Rosario 124 Control Function, Kimura 124 Shezmisbehaving, T. Baze 124 Ice Queen, G. Franco 124
STRANGE ADDICTION
Longshot:
RACE 8
82 —
Horse, Jockey
Kerry Gold, Prat 124 Rodrigoknows, Pereira 122 Speed Grazy, Dettori 122 Spirtual Advisor, G. Franco 122 Mystic Flyer, T. Baze 122 Brazenly, E. Garciq 124
MYSTIC FLYER
Longshot:
RACE 9
83 —
Horse, Jockey
1 Rail for initiation 2 Tough to endorse 5 Be among also rans
51⁄2 Furlongs. Maiden Claiming. 3 year olds. Claiming Price $50,000. State bred. Purse $37,000.
Wt PP Comment
Last Call Paul, T. Baze 122 7 Came up head short Buraq’s Reflectiion, Ayuso 122 3 Gelded, drops
Uncle Juju, Pereira 122 5 Sheds the shades Tiger by the Tail, A. Escbdo 117 6 Prepped in 1:014⁄5 Cody Boy, Frey 122 1 Moves to the main Running Tiger, S. Gonzalez 122 2 Trailed throughout Thirsty Gambler, E. Garcia 122 4 Distant 2nd at night
CODY BOY
Wt PP Comment
7 5 1 4 3 2 6 8 5 2 4 6 3 1
Prefers this course Re-claimed by Knapp Can’t be ignored
Has won routing
Best offers hope
1st for R. Baltas
Rang bell at 37-1 Check back of pack
Wt PP Comment
Scored on turf
Well clear when 2nd Frankie takes over Rehearsed in 481⁄5 Be part of pace
Last on the lawn
Wt PP Comment
15-1 20-1 20-1
Odds
8-5 5-2 4-1 8-1 10-1 15-1 15-1
1 Mile (Turf). Starter Allowance. Fillies and Mares. 4 year olds and up. Purse $39,000.
Odds
7-2 3-1 4-1 8-1 6-1 10-1 15-1 20-1
1 Mile. Allowance Optional Claiming. 4 year olds and up. Claiming Price $20,000. State bred. Purse $67,000.
Odds
2-1 5-2 7-2 8-1 10-1 15-1
61⁄2 Furlongs (Turf). Maiden Claiming. 4 to 5 year olds. Claiming Prices $50,000-$45,000. Purse $37,000.