Data: Latino voter turnout for primary election `not keeping pace'

Latinos rank near the bottom when it came to voting, yet again, according to early returns of the 2024 primary election day.

In California, Latinos had the lowest number of ballots returned of all other large ethnic groups — White, Black and Asian — according to Political Data Inc. As of Wednesday, only an estimated 11% of ballots sent to California Latinos had been returned. Black and Asian voters returned their ballots at a rate of 18%, while White voters led all groups at 25%.

“They're just not keeping pace with the voting rate for other populations,” said Paul Mitchell, founder and vice president of PDI, a bipartisan voting data firm.

The low numbers are not surprising to Latino voting experts, who saw the lackluster turnout coming. And while it's too early to predict the final turnout, some warn that the continued lack of engagement by Latino voters could lead to issues for both the Democratic and Republican parties, who are vying for the Latino vote in the upcoming presidential election.

Nothing about the early data was unexpected to Mindy Romero, founder and director of the Center for Inclusive Democracy. An expert in Latino voting trends, Romero urged patience until all the ballots are counted.

She said Latinos are not alone in the turnout problem. Primary elections routinely receive lower turnout compared to general elections and, with lower turnouts, disparities among ethnic groups tend to become bigger.

Across all registered California voters, only 20% of ballots had been returned thus far, according to the PDI tracker, as of Wednesday.

“Unfortunately, the story is not going to change,” Romero said. “Turnout will be low across the board and even lower for Latinos.”

If anything, Romero said, the final numbers will look worse. The PDI tracker only accounts for registered voters. For Latinos, that's about 6.2 million.

But, this year, there are more than 8 million Latinos in the state who were eligible to cast a ballot, according to California voter file data.

Part of the Latino turnout problem comes from the lack of a youth vote, said Mitchell.

People older than 65 and those between the ages of 18 and 34 represent nearly the same amount of registered voters in California. But in terms of voting numbers, Mitchell said, seniors outperformed younger voters by more than five times as of Wednesday night.

This is particularly important with Latinos because the voting population skews younger. There are roughly 7.8 million Latinos aged 30 and younger living in California, according to the latest census figures.