YOUNG PEOPLE CONTRACTING VIRUS AT RISING RATE IN HAMPTON ROADS
Experts say it’s making it harder to stop COVID-19
With the number of hospitalizations and positive coronavirus tests spiking in Hampton Roads in recent weeks, younger people now make up the majority of new cases.
And it’s worrying health officials as they try to slow the spread of the coronavirus in the region.
So far this month, people under 40 years old account for 60% of Hampton Roads’ new coronavirus cases. That’s up sharply from April and March, when that same group made up just 28% of the region’s confirmed positives.
The median age for a positive coronavirus test now falls in the 30- to 39-year-old group, which is as specific as the health department in Virginia gets when breaking out age demographics. Before May, the median age was between 50 and 59 years old.
“After states began to open up, the people who were anxious to get out and resume their interactions were people who were younger, healthier, more mobile,” said Lisa Lee, a public health expert specializing in infectious disease epidemiology and public health ethics at Virginia Tech.
Of the region’s roughly 6,500 new cases in July, people younger than 40 made up about 3,900 of the positive tests.
Health officials and experts have stressed the need to trace the source of new coronavirus cases to be able to stop the viral transmission. But with the case counts multiplying and skewing younger and younger — and with contact tracing manpower still not able to match the growing demand — that task has become increasingly difficult.
Gov. Ralph Northam acknowledged the situation at a recent news conference, pleading with Virginians to wear masks and social distance. He announced a crackdown on businesses, saying health and liquor inspectors were going to conduct unannounced visits to establishments “as needed” to ensure they were following the rules. They have since started following through.
That trend can be seen in all health districts throughout Hampton Roads, though some cities are seeing the shift more than others. In Virginia Beach, for example, those in their 20s made up 11% of the city’s cases in April and March, while those older than 80 made up 12% of all positives.
But in July, Virginia Beach residents in their 20s made up 30% of all new cases and those older than 80 comprised just 2%.
Northam said last week that in gathering information from positive COVID -19 patients in Hampton Roads, contact tracers were able to specifically identify bars and house parties as places where people weren’t wearing masks or staying 6 feet apart.
“When you think about a bar situation or restaurant situation, it’s set up in a way that’s really conducive to infection,” Lee said.
Bars are typically loud environments, so you have to speak loudly and move close to hear. Masks are removed to drink, and you’re more likely to take risks — like keeping your mask off and being close to others indoors — when you’re consuming alcohol, Lee said.
The age shift isn’t unique to eastern Virginia. It is happening in several states experiencing spikes in new COVID-19 cases, including Florida, California and Arizona.
The swing toward a younger population brings good and bad news: They are much less likely to get extremely sick or die from the virus, but are also moving around more freely and are more likely to be essential workers, experts said. They also are harder to trace.
Dr. Edward Oldfield III, a professor of internal medicine and an infectious disease specialist at Eastern Virginia Medical School, said a lack of testing and slow turnaround time for results contributes to the state’s difficulty in limiting the spread. He identified young people as those most likely to infect others.
The country is also nowhere close to universal mask-wearing — which he sees as key to reducing the spread — and it doesn’t help that some public figures and government officials aren’t encouraging face coverings, he said.
Colleges bringing students back to campus this fall will also likely result in a spike in cases, he said.
“You put all those things together — their invincibility, not wearing masks, parties in groups, the perception they have a low risk (of getting infected), lack of a role model — and then you couple it with asymptomatic transmission,” Oldfield said. “You have a recipe for what we’ve got.”
The shift that happened with cases skewing toward a younger group also happened with hospitalizations in eastern Virginia, which have more than doubled since the start of July, according to data from the Virginia Hospital & Healthcare Association. That group reported that 459 people were hospitalized as of Tuesday, though an age breakdown was not provided.
The Virginia Department of Health’s data, which officials have admitted is more incomplete than the data from the hospital group, does provide a breakdown by age groups of those who have been hospitalized. According to this data, those under 40 are now making up a much larger share of hospitalizations throughout the region. In March and April, they comprised just 8.7% of the region’s new hospitalizations.
In July, that group’s share of new hospitalizations jumped to 22.7%. Those older than 60 now make up 48% of Hampton Roads’ hospitalizations, down from 65.5% before May.
Throughout the region, there have been so few deaths among young people that there is no discernable trend. The health department has reported just four deaths among those younger than 40 years old, one each in the Norfolk, Portsmouth, Western Tidewater and Peninsula health districts.
One occurred in early May on the Peninsula. The rest happened in July.
No one younger than 30 in Hampton Roads has died from the coronavirus, the state’s data shows.
Health experts predict that if spikes among the younger age group continue, the trends are likely to lead to more hospitalizations and deaths among older and more at-risk Virginians as younger people visit their parents, grandparents and other vulnerable people. Oldfield said he feared such a spike could be seen in eight weeks.
Lee said if people continue staying 6 feet apart, wearing masks, washing their hands and staying home when they feel sick, the state should see its numbers taper off. If that doesn’t happen, she thinks more restrictions ought to be put in place.
“If we find that there are continued mini outbreaks or outbreaks in local areas because of a particular behavior, we should try really hard to change that behavior. We want to take the least intrusive and the least restrictive approach and hope that that works, and if it doesn’t, we take the next one,” she said. “We don’t want to interfere with people’s lives unless we absolutely have to, and if this continues to spiral and we get more and more cases, it might turn out that we have to.”
About the data
The Virginian-Pilot analyzed demographic data from the Virginia Department of Health, which broke down coronavirus cases, hospitalizations and deaths by health district and age group.
Using total case counts from the beginning of each May, June and July as well as Tuesday’s totals, The Pilot calculated each age group’s share of new coronavirus cases, hospitalizations and deaths for July, June, May and before May for the following health districts: Chesapeake, Eastern Shore, Hampton, Norfolk, Peninsula, Portsmouth, Virginia Beach and Western Tidewater.
In each of these health districts and the region as a whole, there was a distinct shift to a younger population.