Virus trends point to winter surge, Va. health officials say
Virginians need to take steps now to stop a larger surge from coming this winter, public health officials say.
As the Midwest surges with new coronavirus cases and the pandemic wreaks havoc on some states along Virginia’s borders, experts believe the combination puts the state at high risk with the holidays approaching. Kentucky and Tennessee are both experiencing rapid spreads of infection, and West Virginia is in slow growth.
For the past few weeks, cases in Virginia were fairly stable. But that’s largely because of low counts in densely populated parts of the state that were overshadowing the burgeoning spread in Southwest Virginia, including in Appalachia and the Roanoke Valley, according to a new analysis by The University of Virginia Biocomplexity Institute. The center is partnering with the Virginia Department of Health to offer data-based COVID-19 projections.
Statewide, about 5.8% of standard nasal swab tests came back positive for COVID-19 over the past week, a jump from 5.4%.
Virginia public health officials believe much of the transmission in the Southwest is creeping in from those other high-spreading bordering states. And with lots of Virginians planning to travel later this month, that pattern could mean even more infections brought back home from worse-off areas, leading to big winter surge.
But health experts caution that these predictions are always changing with new information, and slight differences in people’s behavior can alter the course of the pandemic. If Virginians wear masks, keep a distance of at least six feet from other people who aren’t part of their household and wash hands, it could stem the spread.
As of Friday, there had been a total of 173,645 confirmed cases in Virginia and 3,682 deaths. Over 2.7 million tests have been given statewide.
The United States’ case tally rose to 9.6 million last week with about 235,000 deaths, according to data from the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine. There have been 48.9 million cases worldwide, and 1.2 million have died.
The statewide weekly incidence of the virus rose to 15 out of 100,000 people, from 12 out of 100,000 people the week before, according to Virginia public health officials, but continues to be much lower than the national incidence of 34.
The incidence rate is the frequency that a new illness occurs in a community over a period of time. That’s not to be confused with a measure of prevalence, the proportion of people who have an illness in a set time frame, regardless of when they first developed the infection.
In Hampton Roads, six people died last week, almost half the count reported the previous week. Two deaths occurred in Virginia Beach, and one each in Chesapeake, Franklin, Hampton and Norfolk.
During the past week, Virginia Beach’s cases continued climbing, with another 483 confirmed positive, about 100 more than the new cases tallied the previous week, according to the state health department. The next highest totals were found in Norfolk, with 204, and Chesapeake, with 196.
Case counts are expected to be higher in localities with large populations, but the previous week marked a change: Not only did Virginia Beach have a high caseload, but it had one of Hampton Roads’ highest rates of new cases proportionate to its residents. Last week it tied with Williamsburg for having 15.3 cases per 100,000 people.
Only Franklin, a Western Tidewater city with much fewer residents, topped that. It still has the highest rate of new infection for its population, at 21.4 per 100,000, though it has been steadily tapering off over the past few weeks. By comparison, other Hampton Roads cities were experiencing rates lower than 12 out of 100,000 over the same period.
Some positive news: Virginia’s effort to get a handle on outbreaks within its meatpacking and poultry plants has been successful, according to a new state health department report. Infections began to spread in these facilities in March but peaked in April and May, with 59% of the outbreak cases occurring in the Eastern region.
The facilities ramped up infection prevention protocols to tamp down on the virus’ spread, leading to a significant decrease. The new policies included requiring all employees to wear masks, adding hand hygiene stations, screening workers for symptoms and installing barriers between people who must be closer than six feet apart, according to the health department.
In May, there were 554 confirmed COVID-19 cases within these plants; in October, there were just seven.
In other parts of the region:
Chesapeake’s seven-day daily case average was 28 on Friday, a 33% increase from 21 a week ago.
Norfolk’s daily case average was 29, a 26% increase from 23 a week ago.
Virginia Beach’s daily case average was 69, a 44% increase from 48 a week ago
Newport News reported 110 new cases for the week, with a daily case average of 16, down from 18 a week ago.
Portsmouth reported 44 new cases for the week, with a daily case average of six, down from nine a week ago
Hampton reported 86 new cases for the week, with a daily case average of 12, up from 10 a week ago.
James City County reported 25 new cases for the week, with a daily case average of four, flat with the previous week.
York County reported 36 new cases for the week, with a daily case average of five, up from three a week ago.
Suffolk reported 71 new cases for the week, with a daily case average of 10, up from seven a week ago.
Gloucester, Newport News, Poquoson, Portsmouth, Suffolk, Williamsburg and the counties of Accomack, Isle of Wight, James City, Mathews, Middlesex and York reported no deaths.