Thanksgiving was a ‘super spreader,’ some researchers say
A surge in the pandemic following Thanksgiving has reached Hampton Roads, leaving 36 people dead last week, the highest death toll reported for the region in months.
The local spike in COVID-19 fatalities mirrors a rise seen across Virginia — a 5% jump over the past week from a total of 4,160 suspected deaths to 4,370.
Among those who died were nine in Virginia Beach; seven each in Norfolk and Chesapeake; three each in Hampton, Newport News and Suffolk; two in Portsmouth; and one each in James City County and Poquoson.
Thanksgiving already appears to have been “a super-spreader event,” according to a team at RAND Corporation giving pandemic insight to Virginia, though the researchers said they are awaiting better quality data next week to get a fuller picture.
During the past week, Virginia Beach’s case counts shot up, with 1,384 newly confirmed positive. That tally was up 75% from the 791 cases the week before, according to data from the Virginia Department of Health.
The next highest totals were found in Norfolk, 522, and Chesapeake, 448.
At a news conference Thursday, Gov. Ralph Northam pleaded with Virginians to wear masks, wash hands frequently and stay home if possible. His repeated call for residents to take infection prevention measures to heart came amid an announcement of new restrictions that will require Virginians to stay home between midnight and 5 a.m.
Gatherings also now will be capped at 10 people, and everyone over age 5 is expected to wear a mask outside of the home when people can’t be at least six feet apart. The new rules go into effect Monday.
“I hear people talk about their rights, and I’m all about rights, but I think we need to talk about responsibility,” Northam said. “All of us have a responsibility right now to look out for our fellow mankind, our neighbors, our family, our friends.”
About 10.8% of standard nasal swab tests for the coronavirus came back positive over the past week in Virginia, up from 9.5%.
As of Friday, there had been a total of 238,281 confirmed cases, with about 3.6 million total tests having been given statewide.
If the Thanksgiving rebound is more than a short-term aberration, researchers expect cases to peak at over 47,000 a week in early February, according to The University of Virginia Biocomplexity Institute. The center is partnering with the state health department to offer data-based COVID -19 projections.
But health experts caution these predictions are always changing with new information, and slight differences in people’s behavior can alter the course of the pandemic.
If Virginians wear masks, keep a distance of at least 6 feet from other people who aren’t part of their household and wash hands, they could slow the spread.
Coronavirus vaccines, which are expected to be shipped soon to start inoculating frontline health care workers and long-term care residents, will start providing much-needed immunity for select groups in the coming weeks. But public health experts say it will take many more doses throughout the community to wrangle the virus.
The United States’ COVID-19 case tally rose to 15.6 million last week with about 292,000 deaths, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. There have been 69.8 million cases and 1.9 million deaths worldwide.
The statewide weekly incidence of the virus soared to 38 out of 100,000 people, Virginia public health officials said. It continues to be much lower than the national incidence, now at 68.
The incidence rate is the frequency that a new illness occurs in a community over a period of time. That’s not to be confused with a measure of prevalence, the proportion of people who have an illness in a set time frame, regardless of when they first developed the infection.
Case counts are expected to be higher in bigger cities, such as Virginia Beach and Norfolk, but some localities with fewer people saw much higher rates of new cases relative to their population sizes.
Poquoson, which has wrestled with a recent outbreak at a nursing home, far surpassed other cities and counties in the region, with 73.8 per 100,000 people. Franklin had the next highest rate, at 67.7 per 100,000.
By comparison, the figure for Virginia Beach was 43.9, and Norfolk’s was 30.6.
In the Eastern region, hospital beds are not in short supply, but trends are worsening. As of Friday, emergency room visits for coronavirus-like symptoms had been growing for 39 days, and intensive care unit hospitalizations had been increasing for the past 29, according to health department data.
Here’s a look at the pandemic around t he region:
Chesapeake’s seven-day daily case average was 64 on Friday, fairly flat from 65 a week ago.
Norfolk’s daily case average was 75, up from 46.
Virginia Beach’s daily case average was 198, up from 113.
Newport News reported 270 new cases for the week, with a daily case average of 39, up from 37.
Portsmouth reported 253 new cases for the week, with a daily case average of 36, up from 12.
Hampton reported 349 new cases for the week, with a daily case average of 50, up from 22.
James City County reported 74 new cases for the week, with a daily case average of 11, same as a week ago.
York County reported 78 new cases for the week, with a daily case average of 11, down from 13.
Suffolk reported 284 new cases for the week, with a daily case average of 41, up from 17.
Wi l l i a m s b u r g and Accomack, Gloucester, Isle of Wight, Mathews, Middlesex and York counties reported no deaths.