Pandemic analysts watch for virus surge following holidays
About 13.2% of nasal swab tests over the past week in Va. came back positive
Did you sit snugly with friends around the fireplace during Christmas?
Ring in the new year at a crowded house party?
Or did you keep your New Year’s Eve kisses just between you and members of your household?
While many were busy celebrating a good riddance to 2020 last week, data scientists say how people spent the recent holidays will largely affect the course of the pandemic in early 2021.
If Thanksgiving is any indication of what’s to come, the state should expect a surge. Before the November holiday, infections were spreading fast. Coronavirus testing paused over Thanksgiving weekend, then resumed full speed ahead immediately afterward. Data scientists say Virginia won’t fully realize the impact of people’s activities for a couple of weeks.
Now nasal swab tests are coming back consistently above 10% in Virginia communities, indicating the virus is becoming so prevalent, some cases are probably being missed, according to an analysis by The University of Virginia Biocomplexity Institute on Dec. 25. The center is partnering with the Virginia Department of Health to offer data-based COVID-19 projections.
About 13.2% of standard nasal swab tests for the coronavirus came back positive over the past week in Virginia, up from 11.5% one week prior.
As of New Year’s Eve, there had been a total of 293,446 confirmed cases statewide and 5,032 suspected deaths.
If the state’s pandemic continues on this trajectory, new infection cases per week could peak at 47,000 in early February, the UVA analysts said. Their projection was significantly lower than the previous week’s, likely a short-term reflection of holiday-related data reporting shifts, they said.
Health experts caution these predictions are always changing with new information, and slight differences in people’s behavior can alter the course of the pandemic. If, for example, Virginians go to crowded New Year’s Eve parties against health department advice, the outcome could be worse. If they wear masks, keep a distance of at least six feet from other people who aren’t part of their household and wash hands, they could slow the spread.
Coronavirus vaccines did arrive just under the wire, and 64,900 Virginians got a shot in the arm before the ball dropped in Times Square. These shots mark just the beginning of what public health officials say will be a long haul to provide substantial immunity in the state. No one in the priority group has yet received the second dose in the two-shot series — that comes three or four weeks after the initial dose, depending on whether it was made by Pfizer or Moderna.
The statewide weekly incidence of the virus was 49 out of 100,000 people, Virginia public health officials said. The incidence rate is the frequency that a new illness occurs in a community over a period of time. That’s not to be confused with a measure of prevalence, the proportion of people who have an illness in a set timeframe, regardless of when they first developed the infection.
The United States’ case tally rose to 19.8 million last week with about 343,000 deaths, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. There have been 83 million cases and 1.8 million deaths worldwide.
Between Christmas Eve and New Year’s Eve, 36 people died in Hampton Roads. Among those killed were 10 in Virginia Beach; five each in Chesapeake, Hampton and Newport News; three in Norfolk; two each in Portsmouth and Accomack County; one each in Suffolk and James City, Mathews and York counties.
During the week, Virginia Beach’s case counts continued to climb, with 1,501 newly confirmed positive. The next highest totals were found in Norfolk, 619, and Chesapeake, 540.
Case counts are expected to be higher in bigger cities, but some localities with fewer people saw much higher rates of new cases relative to their population sizes. Portsmouth had the highest rate for its population in Hampton Roads, with 59 per 100,000 people. By comparison Virginia Beach’s was 47.6 and Norfolk’s was 36.2.
In the Eastern region, over 70% of hospital beds are occupied, according to state health department data. Although emergency room visits for coronavirus-like symptoms declined somewhat during the previous week, intensive care unit hospitalizations had been increasing for the past 50 days.
Here’s a look at the pandemic around the region:
Chesapeake’s daily case average was 77 on Thursday, down from 108 a week ago.
Norfolk’s case average was 88, up from 85 a week ago.
Virginia Beach’s case average was 214, up from 211 a week ago.
Newport News reported 473 new cases between Christmas Eve and New Year’s Eve, with a daily case average of 68, down from 84 a week ago.
Portsmouth reported 391 new cases over the previous week, with a daily case average of 56, down from 58 a week ago.
Hampton reported 310 new cases over the previous week, with a daily case average of 44, down from 55 a week ago.
James City County reported 209 new cases over the previous week, with a daily case average of 30, down from 33 a week ago.
York County reported 110 new cases for the previous week, with a daily case average of 16, down from 26 a week ago.
Suffolk reported 262 new cases for the previous week, with a daily case average of 37, down from 53 a week ago.
Gloucester, Isle of Wight, Middlesex and Poquoson counties and Franklin and Williamsburg reported no deaths.