Did pandemic peak 2 weeks ago? Local experts think so.
Holiday gatherings and activity appear not to have propelled the coronavirus’ spread as much as public health officials feared.
Across the state, new cases of COVID-19 are generally declining, and pressure on hospitals is easing.
In the Eastern region, 74% of hospital beds are occupied, a slight improvement over the past couple of weeks, according to the Virginia Department of Health. Emergency room visits for coronavirus-like symptoms have been decreasing for three weeks, and intensive care unit hospitalizations also started coming down over the past week.
All of the prediction models for where the pandemic is headed are showing encouraging signs, according to analysts at The University of Virginia Biocomplexity Institute. The data indicate the coronavirus likely peaked two weeks ago.
A little less than 11% of standard nasal swab tests came back positive over the past week in Virginia, down from 12% one week prior. That rate has been declining for several weeks.
As of Friday, there had been a total of 416,000 confirmed cases statewide and 6,732 suspected deaths.
But experts caution that getting complacent now could allow the more aggressive variants of the virus to get a strong foothold in Virginia. The U.Va. study shows that if residents suffer from pandemic fatigue, it could fuel a resurgence, leading to a new peak in early May.
At a news conference Friday morning, Gov. Ralph Northam announced that in addition to four known cases in Virginia of the United Kingdom variant, a case of the South African variant was just confirmed in the state by Labcorp, a private diagnostic services chain.
“Now is not the time to relax,” Northam said. “It’s the time to get even more serious about hand washing, mask wearing and physical distance.”
Health experts say vaccines will be the most
powerful tool in ending the pandemic. So far about 806,400 Virginians have received at least one shot, representing a little over 9% of the population, according to data from the state health department. About 158,000 people have been fully vaccinated with the first dose and the booster that comes three or four weeks later.
Northam, who has been criticized for the slow speed of the initial rollout, said Virginia has improved its ability to distribute and administer its vaccines, with about 86% of its inventory exhausted. That rate does not include thousands of doses committed to the federal pharmacy program, which is inoculating nursing home residents.
State officials say Virginia will still struggle to ramp up shots in arms if it doesn’t see a significant increase in supplies from the federal government. Right now Virginia is receiving only about 122,000 doses a week to spread across its cities and counties.
Because of the limited number of Virginians who are vaccinated, prevention efforts will have an impact on curbing the virus. Health experts say that if residents wear masks, keep a distance of at least 6 feet from other people who aren’t part of their household and wash hands, they could slow the spread.
The U.Va. analysts say this will be true, even if the more contagious variants become dominant.
“Their impact relies on existing levels of transmission,” according to the report. “If existing transmission rates are low, the impact of (variants) is limited. Additionally, fewer cases mean fewer opportunities for (them) to develop.”
The statewide weekly incidence of the virus was 45 out of 100,000 people, Virginia public health officials said, a statistic that has fallen sharply in a week. The incidence rate, exceeding the nation’s 37 out of 100,000, is the frequency that a new illness occurs in a community over a period of time. That’s not to be confused with a measure of prevalence, the proportion of people who have an illness in a set timeframe, regardless of when they first developed symptoms.
The United States’ case tally rose to 26.7 million last week with about 456,000 deaths, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. Around the globe, 105 million people have had confirmed infections and 2.3 million have died. During the past week, 76 people were reported to have died of the virus in Hampton Roads: 22 in Virginia Beach; 14 in Newport News; seven each in Chesapeake and Norfolk; five each in Hampton and Suffolk; three each in Poquoson, and Gloucester and James City counties; two in Portsmouth; and one each in Franklin, and Accomack, Isle of Wight, Mathews and York counties.
Virginia Beach’s case counts dropped from last week but remained high, with 1,510 newly confirmed positive. The next highest totals were found in Chesapeake, at 916, and Norfolk, with 630.
High case numbers are expected in bigger cities, but some localities with fewer people saw much greater rates of new cases per capita. Franklin and Isle of Wight County had the highest rates in Hampton Roads, each with roughly 70 per 100,000 people.
By comparison, Virginia Beach’s was 48 per 100,000 people, and Chesapeake’s was 54.
Here’s a look at the pandemic around the region:
Chesapeake had a daily case average of 131, down from 171 a week ago.
Virginia Beach had a daily case average of 216, down from 297 a week ago.
Norfolk had a daily case average of 90, down from 136 a week ago.
Newport News reported 467 new cases over the previous week, with a daily case average of 67, down from 160 a week ago.
Portsmouth reported 344 new cases, with a daily case average of 49, down from 66 a week ago.
Hampton reported 483 new cases, with a daily case average of 69, down from 94 a week ago.
James City County reported 159 new cases, with a daily case average of 23, down from 57 a week ago.
York County reported 129 new cases, with a daily case average of 18, down from 45 a week ago.
Suffolk reported 382 new cases, with a daily case average of 55, down from 73 a week ago.
Williamsburg reported 25 new cases, with a daily case average of four, up from two a week ago.
For other pandemic data, go to www.vdh.virginia.gov/ coronavirus.
Elisha Sauers, elisha. sauers@pilotonline.com, 757-222-3864