Va.’s cases drop, but new variants cast uncertainty

Just over 11% of state’s population has received at least one dose of vaccine

Corona virus cases throughout the state are dropping at their fastest rate since the pandemic began, University of Virginia research shows.

Vaccinations are up. Hospitalizations are down.

About one of every 10 standard nasal swab tests came back positive over the past week, down from 11% one week prior. That rate has been steadily declining since the beginning of the year.

But while the virus shows encouraging signs of slowing, data-based predictions offer a warning: The state could reach yet another peak just as high as in January if people get lax on masks, handwashing and physical distancing.

Pandemic fatigue, coupled with the new aggressive U.K. and South African variants, could lead to another ramping up of infections well into May, according to an analysis by The University of Virginia Biocomplexity Institute.

Public health officials are also waiting to see the impact of Super Bowl Sunday, which usually brings people together for house parties. They’ll know by looking at case numbers this week whether it has caused another holiday-type surge.

Health experts say vaccines will be the most powerful tool in ending COVID-19. So far, about 972,000 Virginians have received at least one shot, representing a little over 11% of the population, according to data Friday from the Virginia Department of Health. About 271,000 people had been fully vaccinated with the first and second doses.

State officials say Virginia will still struggle to rev up immunizations if it doesn’t see a significant boost in supplies from the federal government. Virginia is only receiving about 122,000 doses per week to spread across all of its cities and counties. CVS, which recently began offering vaccines, will receive another 26,000 doses per week through a channel separate from the state’s allocation.

As of Friday, there had been 432,000 confirmed cases in Virginia and 6,966 suspected deaths.

The United States’ case tally rose to 27.4 million last week with about 476,000 deaths, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. Around the globe, 108 million people have had confirmed infections and 2.4 million have died.

In Eastern Virginia, 76% of hospital beds are occupied, according to the state health department. Emergency room visits for coronavirus-like symptoms have been decreasing for a month, and intensive care unit hospitalizations have also dropped over the past two weeks.

The statewide weekly incidence of the virus was 39 out of 100,000 people, Virginia public health officials said. That rate, exceeding the nation’s 29 out of 100,000, is the frequency at which a new illness occurs in a community over a period of time. That’s not to be confused with a measure of prevalence, the proportion of people who have an illness in a set time frame, regardless of when they first developed symptoms.

During the past week, 68 people were reported to have died of the virus in Hampton Roads: 16 in Hampton; 14 in Virginia Beach; 10 in Newport News; eight in Portsmouth; five in Chesapeake; four each in Suffolk and York County; 2 in Isle of Wight County; and one each in Franklin and Norfolk and Accomack, Gloucester and James City counties.

Virginia Beach’s case counts remain high, with 1,336 newly confirmed positive. The next highest totals were found in Chesapeake, at 859, and Norfolk, with 581.

High case numbers are expected in bigger cities, but some localities with fewer people saw much greater rates of new cases per capita. Suffolk and Isle of Wight County had the highest in Hampton Roads, with 54 and 53 per 100,000 people, respectively.

By comparison, Virginia Beach’s was somewhat lower at 42 per 100,000.

Here’s a look at the pandemic around the region:

Chesapeake had a daily case average of 123, down from 131 a week ago.

Virginia Beach had a daily case average of 191, down from 216 a week ago.

Norfolk had a daily case average of 83, down from 90 a week ago.

Newport News reported 492 new cases over the previous week, with a daily case average of 70, up from 67 a week ago.

Portsmouth reported 313 new cases over the previous week, with a daily case average of 45, down from 49 a week ago.

Hampton reported 427 new cases over the previous week, with a daily case average of 61, down from 69 a week ago.

James City County reported 94 new cases over the previous week, with a daily case average of 13, down from 23 a week ago.

York County reported 147 new cases for the previous week, with a daily case average of 21, up from 18 a week ago.

Suffolk reported 347 new cases for the previous week, with a daily case average of 50, down from 55 a week ago.

Williamsburg reported 23 new cases for the previous week, with a daily case average of three, down from four a week ago.

For other pandemic data, go to www.vdh.virginia.gov/ coronavirus.