Coronavirus cases flatten, but levels still higher than expected
With about 5.5% of standard nasal swab tests coming back positive for the coronavirus last week, the pandemic seems to have flattened statewide.
Daily cases are averaging at about 16 per 100,000 Virginians — far lower than the winter highs that neared 70, according to the Virginia Department of Health.
What concerns epidemiologists is that the plateau is higher than the peak of last summer, which rose to about 13 per 100,000 residents. That could mean if Virginians slack off on hand washing, masks and social distancing of 6 feet from others, the summer could bring a longer peak almost as high as the one experienced at the beginning of this year, according to an analysis by the UVA Biocomplexity Institute.
So far, there have been about 473,000 confirmed cases in Virginia and 10,092 suspected deaths.
During the past week, 49 people were reported to have died of the virus in Hampton Roads: 12 in Chesapeake; eight each in Portsmouth and Virginia Beach; six in York County; five in Hampton; three each in Newport News and Norfolk; and two each in Accomack and Isle of Wight counties.
After a couple of weeks of soaring death totals, a result of data backlogs and lags from the winter surge, the numbers have somewhat swung in the opposite direction — literally.
Larry Hill, a health department spokesman, said the statewide COVID19 death count has been rolled back by 90 following an internal review. The agency looked at over 10,000 previously reported cases to ensure they met the official criteria for a coronavirus-related death. Less than 1% were determined to not qualify, he said, and the numbers were adjusted down accordingly Friday.
The United States coronavirus case tally rose to 29.7 million last week, according to Johns Hopkins University, and about 541,000 Americans have died. Around the globe, 122.1 million people have had confirmed infections, with 2.7 million deaths.
Health experts maintain that vaccines will be the most powerful tool in ending the pandemic. Nearly 1.1 million Virginians had been fully inoculated as of Friday, and about 1.94 million had received at least one shot, representing about 23% of the population, according to data from the state health department.
Over the previous week, Virginia was averaging about 46,000 shots per day, a setback coming off a week that had handily exceeded Gov. Ralph Northam’s goal of 50,000 established in January.
Vaccine supplies throughout the state have increased. For next week, Virginia will receive 385,800 first and second doses, said Melissa Gordon, a spokeswoman for the state health department.
And pharmacies getting their stock through a federal partnership are expected to get 127,440 first and second doses.
In the Eastern region of Virginia, about 74% of hospital beds are occupied, a slight uptick from the week prior, according to the state health department.
But emergency room visits for coronavirus-like symptoms have been decreasing for two months, and intensive care unit hospitalizations have also dropped for nearly the same amount of time.
Virginia Beach’s case counts have continued to be the highest in the region. Last week saw a total of 577 newly confirmed positive — down from 620 the previous week. The next highest totals were Chesapeake, at 303, and Newport News with 283.
High caseloads are expected in bigger cities, but some localities with fewer people saw greater rates of new cases per capita. Poquoson had the highest rate of infections in Hampton Roads, with about 29 per 100,000 people. By comparison, Virginia Beach and Chesapeake each had about 18.
Here’s a l ook at the pandemic around the region for the past week:
Chesapeake had a daily case average of 43, up from 42 a week ago.
■ Virginia Beach had a daily case average of 82, down from 89 a week ago.
■ Newport News had a daily case average of 40, up from 33 a week ago.
■ Norfolk reported 276 new cases over the week before, with a daily case average of 39, up from 37 a week ago.
■ Portsmouth reported 140 new cases, with a daily case average of 20, down from 22 a week ago.
■ Hampton reported 233 new cases, with a daily case average of 33, up from 22 a week ago.
■ James City County reported 91 new cases, with a daily case average of 13, up from 12 a week ago.
■ York County reported 125 new cases, with a daily case average of 18, up from 14 a week ago.
■ Suffolk reported 93 new cases, with a daily case average of 13, up from 12 a week ago.
■ Williamsburg reported 17 new cases, with a daily case average of two, up from one a week ago.
For other pandemic data, go to www.vdh.virginia.gov/ coronavirus.