COVID-19 cases not dropping
Though 16% of Virginians are now fully vaccinated against the coronavirus, case counts are not dropping as public health officials expected.
Pandemic watchers say that doesn’t mean the shots aren’t working. But Virginians probably aren’t being as vigilant about social distancing while the U.K. variant — a more infectious version of COVID-19 — is becoming widespread.
In a forecast that analyzed what would happen if Virginians relaxed their prevention methods and the variant was allowed to move easily from person to person, the pandemic showed a new peak of 115 cases per 100,000 people at the end of June, according to a new UVA Biocomplexity Institute report.
To reduce that projected peak, public health officials are calling on residents to continue wearing masks, keeping 6 feet from others and frequently washing their hands to allow vaccines to work.
Dr. Danny Avula, the state vaccine coordinator, said while cases might be higher now than he’d hoped, immunizations appear to be effective in driving down hospitalizations and deaths among some of the most vulnerable people, such as nursing home residents.
Anecdotally, he’s heard from local contact tracers and investigators that young adults are the source of much of the recent transmission.
“If we’re seeing COVID cases plateau, but hospitalizations and deaths aren’t really surging, then I think that could lead us to a different set of recommendations as well,” he said during a call with reporters Friday. “For young adults and young children, who can’t be vaccinated yet, if they get COVID, it is exceedingly rare for there to be any kind of serious consequences to that, and that might just be our new normal.”
Right now there are about 17 new cases per 100,000 people per day, but several localities, including parts of Hampton Roads, are experiencing slow growth. Those upticks are happening in Norfolk, Hampton, the Peninsula and Western Tidewater areas.
Over 6% of standard nasal swab tests are coming back positive for the coronavirus statewide, according to the Virginia Department of Health.
In the Eastern region of Virginia, 73% of hospital beds are occupied, according to the state health department. After many weeks of declining emergency room visits for coronavirus-like symptoms and intensive care unit hospitalizations, both have begun to rise again over the past two weeks.
So far, there have been about 486,000 confirmed cases statewide and 10,279 suspected deaths.
During the past week, 39 people were reported to have died of the virus in Hampton Roads: nine in Chesapeake; seven in Hampton; six in Virginia Beach; four each in Newport News and Suffolk; three each in Isle of Wight County and Portsmouth; two in Accomack County; and one in Middlesex County.
The number of coronavirus cases in the United States rose to 30.5 million last week, according to Johns Hopkins University, and about 553,000 Americans have died. Around the globe, 129.8 million people have had confirmed infections, with 2.8 million deaths.
Health experts maintain that vaccines will be the most powerful tool in ending the pandemic.
Last week, Virginia was averaging about 67,000 shots a day, exceeding Gov. Ralph Northam’s goal of 50,000 established in January.
Nearly 1.38 million Virginians had been fully inoculated as of Friday, and about 2.57 million had received at least one shot.
Vaccine supplies throughout the state have rapidly increased. For this week, Virginia will receive 112,000 first doses of Pfizer and 86,000 first doses of Moderna.
About 124,000 doses of the single-shot Johnson & Johnson vaccine are also expected. Recent reports indicate the maker has had to recall about 15 million doses of the vaccine produced at a Baltimore plant because of a quality control problem. Virginia public health officials say they don’t know how that disruption in the supply chain will impact the state’s allocation over time.
Supplies to retail pharmacy chains have ramped up considerably, state public health officials said. Nearly one-third of all Virginia doses, over 100,000 this week, are now flowing into those locations. Pharmacies will be expanding their vaccinations to Phase 1C-eligible workers April 11.
All South Hampton Roads cities announced their move into Phase 1C, and Chesapeake already shifted into Phase 2. The second phase opens vaccinations to all people 16 and older.
Virginia Beach’s case counts have continued to be the region’s highest, with 556 newly confirmed positive cases.
High caseloads are expected in bigger cities, but some localities with fewer people saw greater rates of new cases per capita. Williamsburg had the highest rate of infections in Hampton Roads, with about 76 per 100,000 people. By comparison, Virginia Beach and Chesapeake were below 18.
Here’s a look at the pandemic around the region for the past week:
Virginia Beach had a daily case average of 79, down from 80 a week ago.
Norfolk had a daily case average of 48, up from 42 a week ago.
Newport News had a daily case average of 51, up from 35 a week ago.
Chesapeake reported 274 new cases, with a daily case average of 39, down from 40 a week ago.
Portsmouth reported 128 new cases, with a daily case average of 18, down from 22 a week ago.
Hampton reported 223 new cases, with a daily case average of 32, up from 31 a week ago.
James City County reported 104 new cases, with a daily case average of 15, flat with the previous week.
York County reported 93 new cases, with a daily case average of 13, up from 10 a week ago.
Suffolk reported 125 new cases, with a daily case average of 18, down from 19 a week ago.
Williamsburg reported 79 new cases, with a daily case average of 11, up from seven a week ago.
For other pandemic data, go to www.vdh.virginia.gov/ coronavirus.