5 things we know about flying this summer
If the start of spring break is any indication — when an average of more than 1 million flyers a day passed through security at U.S. airports — domestic summer travel is poised to pop.
Airlines have been expanding their route networks, especially in vacation destinations, as competition for leisure travelers heats up. Leisure travelers are expected to lead the recovery as business travel continues to lag.
Here are five things to keep in mind about flying this summer.
The skies will be busier, and the planes fuller
According to airline industry group Airlines for America, passenger volume on U.S. carriers was down 53% in mid-March compared with pre-COVID-19 levels, but up from the darkest days of the pandemic, when it bottomed out below 90%.
With the soft bounce, only Delta Air Lines has continued to block middle seats through April. It would not comment on an extension. (Alaska Airlines is keeping middle seats open in its Premium Class through May 31.)
“My expectation is that
Delta is going to get rid of the blocked middle seat policy,” said Henry Harteveldt, president of travel consultancy Atmosphere Research Group, citing continuing vaccinations for building traveler confidence and competition from other airlines. “Delta realizes it will have to compete more on price than in the past.”
Though the average plane in recent weeks has been about 64% full, summer is looking busier. The airfare app Hopper found searches for domestic summer travel rose nearly 60% since Feb. 20, a level comparable to searches in January 2020, before the coronavirus had been declared a pandemic.
Higher airfares are headed into low-cost headwinds.
With more people traveling, airfares will go up, according to Peter Belobaba, who researches the global airline industry at Massachusetts Institute of Technology. But travelers can expect prices to yo-yo as airlines carefully manage seat pricing.
“It’s difficult to get a cheap fare to Honolulu on a Friday, but it’s pretty easy to get a low fare to Boise on a Tuesday morning,” he said.
Hopper predicts summer airfares to increase by about 12% in May, but to stay low, with the average domestic round-trip flight estimated to top out around $257 in midsummer, compared with about $230 now.
But without business travelers who tend to spend more and fly more, airlines will lack the power to raise fares significantly. Trade organization Global Business Travel Association doesn’t expect a full business travel recovery before 2025.
The expansion of low-cost carriers during the pandemic is likely to keep prices down.
Flexible terms will tighten as voucher dates loosen.
During the pandemic, most airlines eliminated their cancellation and change fees (though Southwest never charged them), but the rules are changing for some of the cheapest fares.
By April, basic economy tickets at American and Delta will become nonrefundable and nonchangeable, as they were before the pandemic. United said it had not decided whether to extend the waiver on basic fares past Wednesday.
Beginning Thursday, JetBlue passengers buying the carrier’s basic fare will be subject to change and cancellation fees.
Ultra-low-cost carriers are also ditching waivers. Spirit is suspending fees on tickets booked only through the end of March. After Wednesday, change fees at Frontier Airlines will range from zero to $59, depending on when a ticket is changed.
Many travelers who had to cancel their plans since the pandemic have received vouchers for use on future flights that normally expire after a year. A study by TripActions, a business travel management company, found that 55% of vouchers for unused tickets will expire in 2021, and 45% in 2022.
The fight for refunds from pandemic-related cancellations continues. This month, Consumer Reports and the
U.S. Public Interest Research Group sent a letter to 10 airlines demanding refunds if requested — citing nearly 90,000 refund complaints received by the Department of Transportation in 2020, representing 87% of all complaints about airlines — and an extension of voucher expirations to the end of 2022.
Passengers will still be masking between bites.
Move over, Biscoff cookies. Chicken wraps and Coca-Cola are poised to make a comeback.
During the pandemic, many airlines reduced or eliminated food service, but this summer, Frontier Airlines plans to resume food sales. United said it will adjust its policies in the coming weeks. Southwest plans to add soft drinks in addition to cups of water with its snacks. Delta put in effect a new touchless paying system on March 16 for onboard sales, currently limited to earbuds, but expected to expand to food and drink.
“This is one of the biggest gripes passengers have about flying right now,” Harteveldt said, noting that in many airports, concessions remain closed, making it hard for travelers to bring their own food on board. “If health considerations are improving to where restaurants can reopen and if industry-funded research shows airplanes are one of the cleanest and safest places to be, and you layer in vaccinations, I think airlines have no choice than to plan to resume cabin service.”
Most observers say the protocols airlines put in place to make the public feel safe about flying — especially deep cleaning and mask mandates — will continue.
Airlines had mask mandates before the Biden administration’s executive order went into effect Feb. 1. Under the order, the Transportation Security Administration requires masks in airports and on planes until May 11.
A TSA spokesperson said it was too soon to say what will happen after that date, but given airline support, masks are likely to be required going forward.
There will be easier access to the great outdoors.
The lack of international and business travel has scrambled the airline route map. Flights to international business destinations like London and Frankfurt, Germany, were trimmed in favor of more flights to vacation destinations, particularly in Florida and Mountain States like Montana.
Comparing March 2021 with March 2019, nearly all states saw declines in scheduled flights.
Only traffic to South Dakota and Montana grew.
Most carriers are announcing new service to leisure destinations in time for summer and in many cases are offering convenient point-to-point service, modeled on low-cost carriers, rather than routing flyers through hubs.