Testing is the key to loosening restrictions
While precious time has been squandered over the last two to three months, I have been wondering when we will have enough kits for universal testing for the virus causing COVID-19.
We have been told in daily briefings that we are doing so much better than other countries. Unfortunately, the data tells us a different story. Some countries are handling this better, faster and resuming a semblance of normal life. The United States is supposed to lead the world in innovation and productivity, and not lag behind.
South Korea and the United States both had their first case on the same day (Jan. 21). South Korea’s infection rate has slowed down since March 8, while our rate is still high.
The difference is aggressive testing. On the average, South Korea ran 50 tests for one person to be found COVID-19 positive, whereas the United States ran only five. We should have prepared for weeks and then created and distributed enough test kits within a few days of the outbreak, not weeks or months. Even if we spent $1,000 per capita in testing, we would have spent only a fraction of the cost of lives saved, the price of being closer to normalcy and the benefit of having better productivity.
So what is the catch? Is the answer “denial and dysfunction”? Or, am I missing something that the public health departments, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control or the government know?
Health departments across the country ask most Americans not to get tested.
They are “prioritizing testing for people with symptoms who are hospitalized, health care workers, first responders and people living in or working in congregate living settings, such as nursing homes and others.”
At the same time, people are frightened to go out to get groceries, are struggling to care for their children, losing their jobs and wondering when life will return to normal. People are unsure whether their neighbor, a stranger at the store or the mailman has the virus.
In reality, a minority of the U.S. population has the virus. As late as April 16, the confirmed cases in the United States (per Johns Hopkins) was 654,301. Let’s assume that we have to isolate as high as 100 times more persons for each positive. The population known or suspected to carry the virus numbers 65,430,100. This is approximately 20% of the U.S. population. The other 80% may be able to cautiously go on with their daily lives, depending on their vulnerabilities.
However, this is currently impossible because we do not have enough testing in place. It would be better yet if had accurate rapid testing. Universal testing looks even more promising if we keep the epicenters out of the calculation. For example, Virginia had 6,889 confirmed cases and so 688,900 (about 8%) may need to be isolated from the other 92%. In Hampton Roads, about 6% may need to be isolated.
It may not be too late to do something different.
Set up safe and accurate (rapid) test centers by private and public organizations. Publicize the need for and the availability of testing. Isolate those that have tested positive and their contacts. Also isolate symptomatic people and their contacts.
Remove people from isolation when proven to be free of the virus. Let others (healthy people) cautiously go on with their daily lives, depending on their vulnerabilities, as guided by their local authorities. People with proven immunity, by antibody testing, can be of big help.
Continue until the population is vaccinated or the virus disappears. Even then, some social distancing and healthy habits should continue to prevent the disease from spreading further. Use these learning to help formulate a blueprint to manage future pandemics.
Dr. Saghana Chakrabortty,