Initial CFP top four rarely, if ever, echo AP rankings
The College Football Playoff rankings will be released for the first time this season at 7 tonight on ESPN.
Combine the latest AP Top 25 with a little history and you can find hints about what to expect.
Never has the selection committee’s initial top four precisely matched the top four of the AP poll that preceded it. Only once, in 2018, have all four teams been the same in each set of rankings, but that year, two of the teams were slotted differently.
In three of the six seasons of the playoff, three of the four teams were the same in each ranking. In two others, only two of four were a match.
With that knowledge, this probably won’t be the committee’s top four tonight because it was the AP’s on Sunday: No. 1 Alabama, No. 2 Notre Dame, No. 3 Ohio State, No. 4 Clemson.
The number of games played by teams ranked in the AP poll ranges from three to nine. How the selection committee handles that disparity will be one of the most fascinating parts of tonight’s reveal.
Here’s a look at the top 10 teams:
No. 1 Alabama (7-0): A little off the radar, WR DeVonta Smith is having a monster year as the Tide’s unquestioned No. 1 receiver with 65 catches for 903 yards and 10 touchdowns.
No. 2 Notre Dame (8-0): Maybe the best offensive line in college football will be without two starters against the Tar Heels: C Jarrett Patterson (foot) is gone for a while, and G Tommy Kraemer is reportedly out after an appendectomy.
No. 3 Ohio State (4-0): The Buckeyes permitted four completions of at least 50 yards against Indiana. That matches the total number of 50-plus completions they allowed all last season. Jeff Okudah and Damon Arnette, the NFL first-rounders Ohio State had at cornerback last year, aren’t walking through that door.
No. 4 Clemson (7-1): Assuming the Tigers do play next weekend, QB Trevor Lawrence will have gone more than a month between games.
No. 5 Texas A&M (5-1): The Aggies have planted themselves a spot ahead of the Gators by beating Florida, but will the committee be so deferential to head-to-head? Will the AP voters continue to be?
No. 6 Florida (6-1): The news from the Gators’ victory against Vanderbilt was Kyle Trask only threw three touchdown passes. It’s the first time this season he has been held under four in a game. He leads the nation with 31.
No. 7 Cincinnati (8-0): The Bearcats have been putting on a master class in how to contain explosive offenses. Against Central Florida, they allowed 4.27 yards per play — more than a yard below the Knights’ previous season low — and held the ball for 37 minutes.
No. 8 Brigham Young (9-0): The Cougars are coming off a glorified scrimmage against North Alabama and are idle for two weeks. Not a great time of year to be out of sight, but maybe that could change.
No. 9 Oregon (3-0): The Ducks were hoping two bluechip freshman linebackers could be major contributors, but Justin Flowe was already expected to miss the season with a leg injury and Noah Sewell was carted off the field Saturday.
No. 10 Miami (7-1): The Hurricanes are getting two weeks off to get a COVID-19 outbreak in order.